DAILY REVIEW 1 October 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Monthly- The candle is a large spread bear closing just off the low on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Daily- The candle is a large spread (131pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on high vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests buying but with more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2570 Daily/Weekly: 1.2034 Supply: short-term: 1.2634, 1.2653, 1.2661, 1.2690, 1.2740 (monthly ema200). Background: The German rates and yields being held negative out to 4 years changed the fundamentals and caused the Euro to weaken against just about every currency and EU responded by breaking the 1.2661 pivot to create a fresh low of 1.2570. The bias is most certainly to the downside now with the change of fundamentals. SM retraced upwards from 1.2570 yesterday fading weak shorts and is likely to continue fading weak shorts to the current swing high 1.2634 or higher before reversing to continue the downward movement.

EU long levels: 1.2570, 1.2034

EU short levels: 1.2634, 1.2653, 1.2661, 1.2690, 1.2740, 1.2782, 1.2800 

GU Analysis 

GU: Monthly- The candle is a average spread bear closing 1/3 off the low on very high vol>13months. The candle close and volume suggests buying but smacks more of a SM fade to restock short positions for more downside movement. Day- The candle is a large spread (120pips) bear spinning top closing on very high vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests buying. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6350, 1.6320, 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6620, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6415, 1.6475, 1.6505, 1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 Still the same, nothing has changed and there really is no clear level to trade from at the moment. The only places worth looking for a trade would be the pivot high at 1.6523 and pivot low at 1.6161 

GU long levels: 1.6161, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6523, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 

Posted at 02.41 am EST