DAILY REVIEW 31 March 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (140pips) bear closing near the low on vol<11weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.  

DAY- The candle is an average spread (82 pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on high vol>9days. The candle close and volume suggests initial selling. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The US economy continues to send mixed signals.Forex Live says ".. initial claims continued to show a strong employment picture.... On the negative side, Durable goods data disappointed. And then there was James Bullard. He made his initial comments at 8:15 AM ET where he said that Fed forecast suggest next hike may not be far off, then he started backtracking a bit..." 

Oanda order book:  Trapped short volumes are still significant with "demand" just below but weak longs still have significant volume to be removed. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.1312-1.1300, 1.1285-1.1267, 1.1257-1.1228, 1.1211-1.1200, 1.1153-1.1140

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1290-1.1285
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1503-1.1512, 1.1595-1.1605

Price whipsawed yesterday as SM took initial profits and price is now retracing as the weak longs are being faded. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to retest 1.1300 or lower before reversing to continue the uptrend.

EU long levels: 1.1290-1.1284,1.1272, 1.1253

EU short levels: 1.1325, 1.1335, 1.1352, 1.1341, 1.1365, 1.1473

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (410pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<11weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (98pips) bear upthrust closing on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests initial selling. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: There is significant newly profitable shorts volume in play. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4495-1.4511, 1.4600-1.4615

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4318-1.4312

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4345-1.4409, 1.4445-1.4486, 1.4515-1.4536, 1.4681-1.4703

The whipsaw was also repeated here as SM took initial profits for re-positioning new orders, remember that this is the last day of the month and month-end flows may mean extreme volatility as SM clears out positions and take profits ahead of tomorrow's NFP.  SM is is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.4386 or higher before reversing to test the 1.4300 level or lower.

GU long levels: 1.4300, 1.4270, 1.4250, 1.4210-1.4200,

GU short levels: 1.4375, 1.4400-1.4410, 1.4445, 1.4485, 1.4512, 1.4600

Posted at 1.37 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 30 March 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (140pips) bear closing near the low on vol<11weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.  

DAY- The candle is a large spread (134pips) bull closing near the high on average vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The US economy continues to send mixed signals.Forex Live says ".. initial claims continued to show a strong employment picture.... On the negative side, Durable goods data disappointed. And then there was James Bullard. He made his initial comments at 8:15 AM ET where he said that Fed forecast suggest next hike may not be far off, then he started backtracking a bit..." 

Oanda order book:  There is new trapped short volumes with "demand" just below. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.1280-1.1224, 1.1153-1.1140

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1290-1.1285
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1527-1.1536

FED Chair Janet Yellen's continued dovish emphasis sent the market into a dollar selling frenzy. As always, SM whipsawed pretty heavily to clean out the weak buy positions before moving strongly up. Many stops were tripped. The US ADP data later today will likely be the catalyst for price positioning ahead of Friday's NFP. SM is likely to create buying pressure to retest 1.1303 or higher before reversing to test today's low 1.1284 or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1284,1.1272, 1.1253

EU short levels: 1.13031.1320, 1.1327-1.1335, 1.1352, 1.1384, 1.1473

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (410pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<11weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is an ultralarge spread (209pips) bull closing near the high on hig vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: There is trapped long volume in play. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4495-1.4511, 1.4600-1.4615

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4365-1.4335, 1.4227-1.4164, 1.4154-1.4145, 1.4120-1.4100

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4397-1.4430

With the Dollar sell-off, the thin market enabled SM to trip buy stops all the way to 1.4403 before reversing to fade weak longs. SM is is likely to retest yesterday's high or higher before reversing to fade weak longs.

GU long levels: 1.4334, 1.4250, 1.4210-1.4200,

GU short levels: 1.4403, 1.4434, 1.4473, 1.4512, 1.4600

Posted at 12.19 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 29 March 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (140pips) bear closing near the low on vol<11weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.  

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (66pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on very low vol<313days. The candle close suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The US economy continues to send mixed signals.Forex Live says ".. initial claims continued to show a strong employment picture.... On the negative side, Durable goods data disappointed. And then there was James Bullard. He made his initial comments at 8:15 AM ET where he said that Fed forecast suggest next hike may not be far off, then he started backtracking a bit..." 

Oanda order book:  There is new trapped long volumes with "demand" just below. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.1188-1.1176, 1.1149-1.1135, 1.1110-1.1095

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: not applicable

Quoting Fx Live, "...soft inflation print in the PCE report kicked off heavy US dollar selling that was probably exaggerated by thin market conditions..." We don't have any high impact data release but FED Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking. Many buy stops were tripped and price has retraced removing weak longs. SM is likely to retest today's low 1.1184 or lower before reversing long.

EU long levels: 1.1182, 1.1174, 1.1145, 1.1135-1.1120, 1.1100-1.1090

EU short levels: 1.1280-1.1290, 1.1300, 1.1335, 1.1352, 1.1384, 1.1473

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (410pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<11weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a large spread (162pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: There is a mix of newly profitable and trapped long volume. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4495-1.4505

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4227-1.4164, 1.4154-1.4145, 1.4120-1.4100

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4277-1.4284, 1.4310-1.4315

The thin market enabled SM to trip buy stops all the way to 1.4280 before reversing to fade weak longs. In the absence of UK news today, SM is is likely to continue fading the weak longs by retesting the 1.4228 level or lower before continuing north.

GU long levels: 1.4220, 1.4210-1.4200, 1.4080, 1.4030-1.4020

GU short levels: 1.4182, 1.4200-1.4230, 1.4380-1.4400

Posted at 10.41 pm EST

DAILY REVIEW 28 March 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (140pips) bear closing near the low on vol<11weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.  

DAY- The candle is a very small spread (28pips) bear spinning top closing on very low vol<321days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure which is to be expected as last Friday was Good Friday. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The US economy continues to send mixed signals.Forex Live says ".. initial claims continued to show a strong employment picture.... On the negative side, Durable goods data disappointed. And then there was James Bullard. He made his initial comments at 8:15 AM ET where he said that Fed forecast suggest next hike may not be far off, then he started backtracking a bit..." 

Oanda order book:  There is new trapped short volumes and are clearly in play with "demand" just below. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.1149-1.1135, 1.1110-1.1095

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: not applicable

Easter Monday is a public holiday in Australia, Italy, Switzerland, UK, Germany, France and New Zealand therefore expect thin trading today. There is US Pending Home Sales data release later. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to retest last week's low 1.1144 or lower before reversing long.

EU long levels: 1.1145, 1.1135-1.1120, 1.1100-1.1090

EU short levels: 1.1280-1.1290, 1.1300, 1.1335, 1.1352, 1.1384, 1.1473

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (410pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<11weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a small spread (50pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very low vol<538days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: The trapped volumes are overwhelmingly long. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4495-1.4505

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4110-1.4090, 1.4055-1.4032

As stated above, UK is having Easter Monday holiday. SM is is likely to fade the weak longs by retesting the 1.4080 level or lower.

GU long levels: 1.4080, 1.4030-1.4020

GU short levels: 1.4182, 1.4200-1.4230, 1.4380-1.4400

Posted at 11.05 pm EST

DAILY REVIEW 25 March 2016

It is GOOD FRIDAY today and let's just remember God's love and goodness toward us!
John 3:16 "For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life."

Blessings and Shalom!
TrekTrader 
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (284pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

DAY- The candle is a small spread (43ppips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on low vol<48days. The candle close and volume suggests no supply. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: To put it in a nutshell, last week's FOMC minutes simply showed us that not all is as well as hoped, with the FED recognizing global economic challenges that may derail the US recovery, after all, what is industry without business? Therefore reducing the number of rate hikes to two for the year was a clear sign of safety first. To use a metaphor, no one wants to switch off the artificial life support system while the patient is still in danger. With the ECB pulling out its own bag of tricks, this makes for high volatility and a great trading month. 

Oanda order book:  The trapped short volumes are clearly in play with "demand" just below. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.1161-1.1135, 1.1113-1.1095

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1182-1.1195, 1.1278-1.1288

The US GDP data release later today will be the market moving catalyst. Being a public holiday in most major markets, volume will be thin today. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to retest yesterday's low 1.1144 or lower before reversing long.

EU long levels: 1.1145, 1.1135-1.1120, 1.1100-1.1090

EU short levels: 1.1280-1.1290, 1.1300, 1.1335, 1.1352, 1.1384, 1.1473

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (462pips) bull pseudo-hammer closing on low vol<8weeks. The candle close and volume suggests a bear trap in place with upside expected.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (125pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests commencement of buying interest and reduced selling pressure. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: The trapped volumes are overwhelmingly long. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4495-1.4505

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4177-1.4235, 1.4295-1.4325, 1.4390-1.4415

There is no UK data today. SM is is likely to fade the weak longs by retesting the 1.4080 level or lower.

GU long levels: 1.4080, 1.4030-1.4020

GU short levels: 1.4182, 1.4200-1.4230, 1.4380-1.4400

Posted at 10.57 am EST