DAILY REVIEW 31 March 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (140pips) bear closing near the low on vol<11weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.  

DAY- The candle is an average spread (82 pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on high vol>9days. The candle close and volume suggests initial selling. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The US economy continues to send mixed signals.Forex Live says ".. initial claims continued to show a strong employment picture.... On the negative side, Durable goods data disappointed. And then there was James Bullard. He made his initial comments at 8:15 AM ET where he said that Fed forecast suggest next hike may not be far off, then he started backtracking a bit..." 

Oanda order book:  Trapped short volumes are still significant with "demand" just below but weak longs still have significant volume to be removed. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.1312-1.1300, 1.1285-1.1267, 1.1257-1.1228, 1.1211-1.1200, 1.1153-1.1140

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1290-1.1285
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1503-1.1512, 1.1595-1.1605

Price whipsawed yesterday as SM took initial profits and price is now retracing as the weak longs are being faded. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to retest 1.1300 or lower before reversing to continue the uptrend.

EU long levels: 1.1290-1.1284,1.1272, 1.1253

EU short levels: 1.1325, 1.1335, 1.1352, 1.1341, 1.1365, 1.1473

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (410pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<11weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (98pips) bear upthrust closing on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests initial selling. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: There is significant newly profitable shorts volume in play. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4495-1.4511, 1.4600-1.4615

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4318-1.4312

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4345-1.4409, 1.4445-1.4486, 1.4515-1.4536, 1.4681-1.4703

The whipsaw was also repeated here as SM took initial profits for re-positioning new orders, remember that this is the last day of the month and month-end flows may mean extreme volatility as SM clears out positions and take profits ahead of tomorrow's NFP.  SM is is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.4386 or higher before reversing to test the 1.4300 level or lower.

GU long levels: 1.4300, 1.4270, 1.4250, 1.4210-1.4200,

GU short levels: 1.4375, 1.4400-1.4410, 1.4445, 1.4485, 1.4512, 1.4600

Posted at 1.37 am EST