DAILY REVIEW 29 March 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (140pips) bear closing near the low on vol<11weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.  

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (66pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on very low vol<313days. The candle close suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The US economy continues to send mixed signals.Forex Live says ".. initial claims continued to show a strong employment picture.... On the negative side, Durable goods data disappointed. And then there was James Bullard. He made his initial comments at 8:15 AM ET where he said that Fed forecast suggest next hike may not be far off, then he started backtracking a bit..." 

Oanda order book:  There is new trapped long volumes with "demand" just below. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.1188-1.1176, 1.1149-1.1135, 1.1110-1.1095

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: not applicable

Quoting Fx Live, "...soft inflation print in the PCE report kicked off heavy US dollar selling that was probably exaggerated by thin market conditions..." We don't have any high impact data release but FED Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking. Many buy stops were tripped and price has retraced removing weak longs. SM is likely to retest today's low 1.1184 or lower before reversing long.

EU long levels: 1.1182, 1.1174, 1.1145, 1.1135-1.1120, 1.1100-1.1090

EU short levels: 1.1280-1.1290, 1.1300, 1.1335, 1.1352, 1.1384, 1.1473

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (410pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<11weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a large spread (162pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: There is a mix of newly profitable and trapped long volume. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4495-1.4505

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4227-1.4164, 1.4154-1.4145, 1.4120-1.4100

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4277-1.4284, 1.4310-1.4315

The thin market enabled SM to trip buy stops all the way to 1.4280 before reversing to fade weak longs. In the absence of UK news today, SM is is likely to continue fading the weak longs by retesting the 1.4228 level or lower before continuing north.

GU long levels: 1.4220, 1.4210-1.4200, 1.4080, 1.4030-1.4020

GU short levels: 1.4182, 1.4200-1.4230, 1.4380-1.4400

Posted at 10.41 pm EST