DAILY REVIEW 14 March 2016

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (395pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (129pips) bear "hammer" closing on vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last Friday's NFP figures were strong and as can be expected with the order stacks, made for SM shark feeding. The strong figures basically gave the retail crowd the basis to buy the USD, with EURUSD plunging as shorts were induced by the news release but only to 1.0902 after which SM had sufficient orders to start the upward climb pushing all the way to 1.1042 before initial profit taking.

Oanda order book:  trapped shorts still form the bulk of the volume distribution but looks like no clear stop order stacks in sight.  

Potential demand stacks:  1.1086-1.1059, 1.0810-1.0770

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: not applicable

With the volumes very thin and no significant net positions in the market, SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to the 1.1100 key level or lower to induce shorts before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.0950-1.0940, 1.0850-1.0830

EU short levels: 1.1200, 1.1217, 1.1335

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (319pips) bull closing near the high on near average vol<7weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a very large spread (182pips) bull closing about 1/4 off the high on low vol<1day. The candle close suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: volumes are extremely thin with no significant trapped positions.

Potential demand stacks: Not significant
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4367-1.4328, 1.4242-1.4235

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4431-1.4484, 1.4558-1.4574, 1.4702-1.4713

The market will generally wait for the FOMC news later this week. There is no major news this today . SM is again likely to oscillate price to build positions. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the the 1.4317 level or lower before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.4315, 1.4245

GU short levels:  1.4603-1.4632, 1.4665-1.4680

Posted at 5.01 am EST