DAILY REVIEW 9 March 2016

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (217pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<4weeks. The candle close suggests more upside.  

DAY- The candle is a below average spread pseudo "upthrust" closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last Friday's NFP figures were strong and as can be expected with the order stacks, made for SM shark feeding. The strong figures basically gave the retail crowd the basis to buy the USD, with EURUSD plunging as shorts were induced by the news release but only to 1.0902 after which SM had sufficient orders to start the upward climb pushing all the way to 1.1042 before initial profit taking.

Oanda order book:  trapped shorts form the bulk of the volume distribution but there are newly trapped long volumes as well.  

Potential demand stacks:  1.0853-1.0825

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0981-1.0992, 1.1067-1.1100, 1.1108-1.1128 

We don't have significant data releases today unless you consider Crude oil inventories significant. SM will oscillate price to build positions for the next move. SM is likely to test the 1.0940 H4 pivot to induce more shorts before fading them to the 1.1067 H4 pivot or higher.

EU long levels: 1.0950-1.0940, 1.0850-1.0830

EU short levels: 1.1065, 1.1093, 1.1129

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (412pips) bull closing near the high on average vol<5weeks. The candle close suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (101pips) bear closing nearly 1/2 off the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests possibly more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: volumes are extremely thin with both trapped shorts and longs across the volume distribution without a clear bias.

Potential demand stacks: Not significant
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4178-1.4170, 1.4110-1.4100, 1.3988-1.3968

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4271-1.4305, 1.4351-1.4359, 1.4450-1.4471

Yesterday I wrote that we can expect SM to push lower to 1.4175 before going back, it actually went to 1.4173 which goes to show we either read wrong or read right. It is not a guessing game where orders are stacked. The UK Manufacturing (month on month) at 0.7% vs 0.2%, SM has the ammunition it needs to push higher. SM is likely to continue fade weak shorts to the 1.4270 level or higher before reversing.

GU long levels: Not Applicable

GU short levels: 1.4265-1.4283, 1.4305-1.4330, 1.4400, 1.4432, 1.4459, 1.4485, 1.4500, 1.4600-1.4615, 1.4665-1.4680

Posted at 5.27 am EST