DAILY REVIEW 30 March 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (140pips) bear closing near the low on vol<11weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.  

DAY- The candle is a large spread (134pips) bull closing near the high on average vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The US economy continues to send mixed signals.Forex Live says ".. initial claims continued to show a strong employment picture.... On the negative side, Durable goods data disappointed. And then there was James Bullard. He made his initial comments at 8:15 AM ET where he said that Fed forecast suggest next hike may not be far off, then he started backtracking a bit..." 

Oanda order book:  There is new trapped short volumes with "demand" just below. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.1280-1.1224, 1.1153-1.1140

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1290-1.1285
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1527-1.1536

FED Chair Janet Yellen's continued dovish emphasis sent the market into a dollar selling frenzy. As always, SM whipsawed pretty heavily to clean out the weak buy positions before moving strongly up. Many stops were tripped. The US ADP data later today will likely be the catalyst for price positioning ahead of Friday's NFP. SM is likely to create buying pressure to retest 1.1303 or higher before reversing to test today's low 1.1284 or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1284,1.1272, 1.1253

EU short levels: 1.13031.1320, 1.1327-1.1335, 1.1352, 1.1384, 1.1473

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (410pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<11weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is an ultralarge spread (209pips) bull closing near the high on hig vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: There is trapped long volume in play. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4495-1.4511, 1.4600-1.4615

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4365-1.4335, 1.4227-1.4164, 1.4154-1.4145, 1.4120-1.4100

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4397-1.4430

With the Dollar sell-off, the thin market enabled SM to trip buy stops all the way to 1.4403 before reversing to fade weak longs. SM is is likely to retest yesterday's high or higher before reversing to fade weak longs.

GU long levels: 1.4334, 1.4250, 1.4210-1.4200,

GU short levels: 1.4403, 1.4434, 1.4473, 1.4512, 1.4600

Posted at 12.19 am EST