DAILY REVIEW 25 March 2016

It is GOOD FRIDAY today and let's just remember God's love and goodness toward us!
John 3:16 "For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life."

Blessings and Shalom!
TrekTrader 
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (284pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

DAY- The candle is a small spread (43ppips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on low vol<48days. The candle close and volume suggests no supply. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: To put it in a nutshell, last week's FOMC minutes simply showed us that not all is as well as hoped, with the FED recognizing global economic challenges that may derail the US recovery, after all, what is industry without business? Therefore reducing the number of rate hikes to two for the year was a clear sign of safety first. To use a metaphor, no one wants to switch off the artificial life support system while the patient is still in danger. With the ECB pulling out its own bag of tricks, this makes for high volatility and a great trading month. 

Oanda order book:  The trapped short volumes are clearly in play with "demand" just below. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.1161-1.1135, 1.1113-1.1095

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1182-1.1195, 1.1278-1.1288

The US GDP data release later today will be the market moving catalyst. Being a public holiday in most major markets, volume will be thin today. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to retest yesterday's low 1.1144 or lower before reversing long.

EU long levels: 1.1145, 1.1135-1.1120, 1.1100-1.1090

EU short levels: 1.1280-1.1290, 1.1300, 1.1335, 1.1352, 1.1384, 1.1473

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (462pips) bull pseudo-hammer closing on low vol<8weeks. The candle close and volume suggests a bear trap in place with upside expected.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (125pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests commencement of buying interest and reduced selling pressure. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: The trapped volumes are overwhelmingly long. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4495-1.4505

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4177-1.4235, 1.4295-1.4325, 1.4390-1.4415

There is no UK data today. SM is is likely to fade the weak longs by retesting the 1.4080 level or lower.

GU long levels: 1.4080, 1.4030-1.4020

GU short levels: 1.4182, 1.4200-1.4230, 1.4380-1.4400

Posted at 10.57 am EST