DAILY REVIEW 8 March 2016

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (561pips) upthrust closing on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (217pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<4weeks. The candle close suggests more upside.  

DAY- The candle is a below average hammer closing on low vol<23days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last Friday's NFP figures were strong and as can be expected with the order stacks, made for SM shark feeding. The strong figures basically gave the retail crowd the basis to buy the USD, with EURUSD plunging as shorts were induced by the news release but only to 1.0902 after which SM had sufficient orders to start the upward climb pushing all the way to 1.1042 before initial profit taking.

Oanda order book:  old trapped shorts continue to form the bulk of the volume distribution but there are newly trapped long volumes as well.  

Potential demand stacks:  1.0844-1.0820

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0983-1.0975,1.0964-1.0955
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1067-1.1100, 1.1115-1.1130 

We have the EU GDP data later but the EU Finance Ministers meeting is in progress, any leaks of news may create volatility that SM will use. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.1067 H4 pivot or higher before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.0850-1.0830

EU short levels: 1.1065, 1.1093, 1.1129

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a large spread (832 pips) bear inverted hammer closing on average vol>10months. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (412pips) bull closing near the high on average vol<5weeks. The candle close suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a normal spread (149pips) bull hammer closing on low vol<45days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. This hammer is likely to be a bear trap.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: volumes are extremely thin with both trapped shorts and longs across the volume distribution without a clear bias.

Potential demand stacks: Not significant
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4178-1.4170, 1.4110-1.4100, 1.3988-1.3968

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4301-1.4327, 1.4450-1.4471

With BOE's George Carney speaking soon, expect extremely volatility as SM is likely to remove weak shorts longs before dealing with the longs shorts. SM is likely to continue fade weak shorts longs to the 1.4175 level or lower before reversing to continue the up move to test 1.4260. Sorry I updated this at 9.44 am, it was an error but if you read carefully, the price of the levels are self-explanatory in terms of sequence.

GU long levels: Not Applicable

GU short levels: 1.4305-1.4330, 1.4400, 1.4432, 1.4459, 1.4485, 1.4500, 1.4600-1.4615, 1.4665-1.4680

Posted at 2.53 am EST