DAILY REVIEW 27 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (171pips) bear closing about 1/2 above the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is an ultralarge (196pips) bear closing near the low on average vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak. Yesterday's US data release resulted in Blockbuster US Dollar strength: Jan real weekly wages +1.2% vs 0.3% expected, US Jan durable goods orders +2.8% vs +1.6% exp, Capital goods orders non-defense ex air +0.6% vs +0.4% exp plus the Fed's Williams saying that if data "plays ball", the first rate rise could be this summer or Autumn and the Fed's Mester being in favor of putting a June rate hike on the table all pushed the US Dollar up and everything else under culminating in a 196pips drop for the EU pair.

The Oanda order book shows no significant trapped retail trader positions.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1200-1.1190
Potential fresh supply at 1.1245-1.1255, 1.1295-1.1308, 1.1405-1.1392, 1.1452-1.1440, 1.1495-1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1185-1.1165, 1.1150-1.1140 
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1250-1.1264, 1.1400-1.1385, 1.1465-1.1443, 1.1493-1.1500, 1.1540-1.1550, 1.1590-1.1600

SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.1250 level or higher before resuming the downtrend. The sentiment is now strongly down owing to the increasing US Dollar strength and weak Euro.

EU long levels: 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1250, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (169pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Day- The candle is a verey large spread (158pips bear closing near the low on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book does not have any particular bias on trapped traders. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5295-1.5310, 1.5200-1.5210, 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5445-1.5458,1.5466-1.5479, 1.5550, 1.5650, 1.5700
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5555-1.5560, 1.5600, 1.5615-1.5620, 1.5690-1.5700 
Potential long stops: 1.5395-1.5385, 1.5310-1.5290, 1.5280-1.5265, 1.5211-1.5200, 1.5195-1.5178
SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.5445 level or higher before reversing to test yesterday's low.

GU long levels: 1.5400-1.5393, 1.5350, 1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5450, 1.5475, 1.5500,1.5550, 1.5573, 1.5590, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 1.35 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 26 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (171pips) bear closing about 1/2 above the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a small spread (53pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak and even though European finance ministers agreed to Greece's proposals, the fine print and final form is yet to be concluded. FED Chair Yellen's testimony yesterday just repeated what she had said the previous day, reiterating the dovish conservative outlook that led to weakening of the US Dollar. Any movement in this pair now is more likely the effect of Dollar-weakness rather than Euro strength as the Euro continues to be mired in seemingly endless challenges.

The Oanda order book shows significant volume trapped short without significant stops for trapped short orders until a bunch from around the 1.1440-1.1500 level.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1325-1.1315, 1.1310-1.1295, 1.1280-1.1260, 1.1220-1.1195 , 1.1192-1.1215
Potential fresh supply at 1.1405-1.1392, 1.1452-1.1440, 1.1495-1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1270-1.1245, 1.1200 (no significant volumes seen) 
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1400-1.1385, 1.1465-1.1443, 1.1493-1.1500, 1.1540-1.1550, 1.1590-1.1600

There is no change as SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to the 1.1400 key level or higher to restock short positions before resuming the downtrend.

EU long levels: 1.1377, 1.1360, 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (169pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Day- The candle is a normal spread (91pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a similar volume of traders trapped long and short with price nearer the shorts' stops. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5295-1.5310, 1.5200-1.5210, 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5500, 1.5535-1.5550, 1.5650, 1.5700
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5555-1.5560, 1.5600, 1.5615-1.5620, 1.5690-1.5700 
Potential long stops: 1.5465-1.5420, 1.5400, 1.5385, 1.5310-1.5290, 1.5280-1.5265, 1.5211-1.5200, 1.5195-1.5178

With the UK GDP data out later today, SM is likely to continue buying pressure to fade weak shorts to the 1.5574 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. 

GU long levels: 1.5448, 1.5400, 1.5350, 1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5573, 1.5590, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 1.35 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 25 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (171pips) bear closing about 1/2 above the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a below average spread (69pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak and even though European finance ministers agreed to Greece's proposals, the fine print and final form is yet to be concluded. FED Chair Yellen's testimony centred on the perceived risks to China's economy which is seemingly holding up just about everything else and a reluctance to see the US jobs market as having turned the quarter despite a stellar January performance. Overall, it was a dovish conservative outlook that led to weakening of the US Dollar. Therefore any movement in this pair now is more likely the effect of Dollar-weakness rather than Euro strength as the Euro continues to be mired in seemingly endless challenges.

The Oanda order book shows significant volume trapped short without significant stops for trapped short orders until a bunch from around the 1.1440-1.1500 level.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1325-1.1315, 1.1310-1.1295, 1.1280-1.1260, 1.1220-1.1195 , 1.1192-1.1215
Potential fresh supply at 1.1405-1.1392, 1.1452-1.1440, 1.1495-1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1270-1.1245, 1.1200 (no significant volumes seen) 
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1465-1.1443, 1.1493-1.1500, 1.1540-1.1550, 1.1590-1.1600

On the back of the dovish comments by the FED Chair, US Dollar weakened across the board and the weakness continues. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to the 1.1400 key level or higher to restock short positions before resuming the downtrend.

EU long levels: 1.1377, 1.1360, 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (169pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Day- The candle is a below average spread (72pips) bear "near doji" closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure and more upside can be expected. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

The order book shows a similar volume of traders trapped long and short with price nearer the shorts' stops. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5295-1.5310, 1.5200-1.5210, 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5500, 1.5535-1.5550, 1.5650, 1.5700
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5490-1.5530, 1.5555-1.5560, 1.5600, 1.5615-1.5620, 1.5690-1.5700 
Potential long stops: 1.5310-1.5290, 1.5280-1.5265, 1.5211-1.5200, 1.5195-1.5178
At10.00GMT BOE's Carney, Haldane, Shafik, Cunliffe and Bailey will speak on a panel discussion at the Onebank research conference. It may or may not have an impact. SM is likely to continue buying pressure to fade weak shorts to the 1.5500 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. 

GU long levels: 1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5550, 1.5573, 1.5590, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 2.12 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 24 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (171pips) bear closing about 1/2 above the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a normal spread (101pips) bear closing about 2/3 off the low on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak and even though a deal on the Greek debt has been agreed over the weekend, the "Greek letter", which was due on Monday to the "institutions" outlining their economic pledges - was delayed until Tuesday resulting in continuing downward pressure on the Euro.

The Oanda order book reveals a somewhat similar volume trapped both long and short without significant stops for trapped longs but a clear cluster of trapped short orders at around the 1.1370 level.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1315-1.1295, 1.1280-1.1260, 1.1220-1.1195 , 1.1192-1.1215
Potential fresh supply at 1.1405-1.1392, 1.1452-1.1440, 1.1495-1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1270-1.1245, 1.1200 (no significant volumes seen) 
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1362-1.1377, 1.1465-1.1443, 1.1493-1.1500, 1.1540-1.1550, 1.1590-1.1600

Apart from the Greek letter, the market is also awaiting FED Chair Janet Yellen's testimony. The downward pressure on the Euro continues and SM is expected to maintain selling pressure to around the 1.1300 level or lower to fade the weak longs before reversing to resume the corrective upward movement. Note that at 1400GMT, ECB's Draghi speaks at the launch of the new €20 note. At 1500GMT US Fed's Yellen starts part one of her semi annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy and the economic outlook. Expect SM to do their usual wrong footing of the herd either before or during the speeches.

EU long levels: 1.1377, 1.1360, 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (169pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Day- The candle is a a vry large spread (142pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<122days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but more upside can be expected. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

A larger volume of traders remain trapped long but there are also sufficient traders trapped short with price nearer the shorts' stops. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5295-1.5310, 1.5200-1.5210, 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5470-1.5490, 1.5500, 1.5535-1.5550, 1.5650
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5470-1.5480, 1.5490-1.5505, 1.5540-1.5554, 1.5600 
Potential long stops: 1.5310-1.5290, 1.5280-1.5265, 1.5211-1.5200, 1.5195-1.5178
SM is likely to continue buying pressure to fade weak shorts to the 1.5480 or higher before reversing. With George Carney dues to speak at 1000GMT, we can expect SM to position prices before the turns.

GU long levels: 1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5478, 1.5570, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 2.03 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 23 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (171pips) bear closing about 1/2 above the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a very large spread (150pips) bull near-doji closing 1/3 off the high on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak even though a deal on the Greek debt has been agreed over the weekend.

The Oanda order book reveals a significant volume trapped long but there are no significant stops.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1305-1.1295, 1.1280-1.1260, 1.1220-1.1195 
Potential fresh supply at 1.1450, 1.1495-1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1270-1.1245, 1.1200 (no significant volumes seen) 
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1465-1.1443, 1.1493-1.1500, 1.1540-1.1550, 1.1590-1.1600

Price opened with a 11pips gap up but has been diving since then and SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around the 1.1377 level or lower to fade the weak longs before reversing to resume the corrective upward movement. 

EU long levels: 1.1377, 1.1360, 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (169pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Day- The candle is a normal spread (91pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on average vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

The SM cycle remains biased long. There is a significant volume of traders trapped long. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5295-1.5300, 1.5200-1.5210, 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5425-1.5440, 1.5460-1.5475, 1.5500, 1.5535-1.5550, 1.5650
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5470-1.5480, 1.5490-1.5505, 1.5527-1.5535, 1.5600 
Potential long stops: 1.5320-1.5290, 1.5280-1.5255, 1.5238-1.5220, 1.5195-1.5178
SM is likely to continue selling pressure to fade weak longs to the 1.5320 or lower before reversing to continue the corrective move long.

GU long levels: 1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5455, 1.5478, 1.5570, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 7.00 am EST