DAILY REVIEW 18 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (172pips) bull closing about 1/4 off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Daily- The candle is a large spread (126pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on low vol>2das. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the European leaders attempt to restructure the Greek debt.

The sentiment for the Euro remains bearish as the Greek issue drags on. The SM corrective cycle long for reload of short positions has commenced and is likely to continue. 

The Oanda order book reveals a significant volume trapped short.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1305-1.1295, 1.1285-1.1265, 1.1220-1.1195 
Potential fresh supply at 1.1450, 1.1495-1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1375-1.1343, 1.1270-1.1245, 1.1200  
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1465-1.1443, 1.1493-1.1500, 1.1540-1.1550, 1.1590-1.1600

SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around the 1.1360 level or lower to fade the weak longs before reversing to resume the corrective upward movement. 

EU long levels: 1.1360, 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped further on USD strength. It is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (225pips) bull closing just off the high on vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a normal spread (91pips) bear "near doji" closing on vol<5days. The candle close and volume suggests some downside before reversing long. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

The SM cycle remains biased long but now with a significant volume of traders trapped long. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5295-1.5300, 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5435-1.5445, 1.5460-1.5475, 1.5500, 1.5535-1.5550, 1.5650
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5415-1.5395, 1.5435-1.5460, 1.5500, 1.5527-1.5550, 1.5600 
Potential long stops: 1.5320-1.5290, 1.5280-1.5255, 1.5238-1.5220, 1.5195-1.5178
SM is likely to continue selling pressure to fade weak longs to the 1.5320 or lower before reversing to continue the corrective move long.

GU long levels: 1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5455, 1.5478, 1.5570, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 3.23 am EST