DAILY REVIEW 13 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (241pips) upthrust closing on high vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle close is a large spread (121pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak.  However, the combination of poor US data released yesterday plus rumours of a possible solution to the Greek restructuring caused the US Dollar to weaken considerably.

Make no mistake about it, the sentiment for the Euro remains bearish even without the ongoing Greek issue. The SM corrective cycle long for reload of short positions has commenced and is likely to continue. 

Based on the Oanda order book, there is significant volume trapped short.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1275-1.1250, 1.1220-1.1195 
Potential fresh supply at 1.1450, 1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1270-1.1245, 1.1200  
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1540-1.1570, 1.1595-1.1610

With a significant volume of traders trapped short. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to around the 1.1450 level or higher to fade the weak shorts before reversing to around 1.1275 or lower before resuming the corrective upward movement. 

EU long levels: 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped further on USD strength. It is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a large spread (363pips) bull large body spinning top closing about 1/4 off the high on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a ultra-large spread (205pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

In tandem with the good UK data and weak US data, price has already come close a previous breakout level of 1.5426, peaking at 1.5418 before reversing. The SM cycle remains biased long with a significant volume of traders trapped short but based on the order flow will likely see weak longs taken out before the push back upward. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 (unchanged)
Potential supply stacks: 1.5428-1.5450, 1.5500, 1.5550
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5390-1.5400, 1.5425-1.5455, 1.5470-1.5480, 1.5490-1.5500 
Potential long stops/manipulation: 1.5322-1.5311, 1.5309-1.5290, 1.5195-1.5175, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5080 - 70, 1.5050
SM is likely to continue selling pressure to fade weak longs to the 1.5325 or lower before reversing to test the day high at 1.5418 or higher.

GU long levels: 1.5325, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5418, 1.5478, 1.5566, 1.5600, 1.5618

Posted at 4.43 am EST