DAILY REVIEW 9 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (241pips) upthrust closing on high vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a very large spread (174pips) bear closing on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak.  

The sentiment remains bearish for the Euro. The SM corrective cycle long for reload of short positions looks to have commenced and is likely to continue. 
Based on the Oanda order book, there is significant volume trapped short.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1280-1.1265, 1.1220-1.1195 
Potential fresh supply at 1.1400, 1.1450, 1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1300, 1.1240-1.1230, 1.1200-1.1185  
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1540-1.1570, 1.1595-1.1610

Prices opened gapped down about 16pips but has since pushed up fading weak short. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to around the 1.1420 level or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. 

EU long levels: 1.1295, 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped further on USD strength. It is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a large spread (363pips) bull large body spinning top closing about 1/4 off the high on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a large spread (141pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<28days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

In VSAnalytiks chat group, I wrote: [Saturday, February 07, 2015 9:22 AM] VS: Look at where GU reversed.... just spiked through the H4 CVL as analysed. Closed high on ultrahigh vol (M15) widespread bear spinning top.... Expect possible gap down on Monday to grab stops and likely to go back long. GU will be very tempting for every retail trader to short because of the daily railroad track... analyze the structure and orderflow, don't miss the continuation entry when it sets up. Gap at 1.5324 has been closed, no more potential supply there.... the continuation should be back to 1.5500 or higher. 

Per the analysis, GU gapped open down and pushed up. Prices are now headed back down after a push to 1.5267 There is no significant UK news today and price may oscillate before pushing back long. The SM cycle remains biased long with a significant volume of traders trapped short. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 (unchanged)
Potential supply stacks: 1.5340-60, 1.5400, 1.5450
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5290-1.5310, 1.5348-80, 1.5400 
Potential long stops/manipulation: 1.5200 - 1.5190, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5080 - 70, 1.5050
There is no significant potential fresh supply, possible short term manipulation level for an intraday short trade is at 1.5300. SM is likely to continue selling pressure to induce shorts to around 1.5209 or lower before reversing to resume the corrective move upward.

GU long levels: 1.5200, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels: 1.5300, 1.5350, 1.5347, 1.5415, 1.5478, 1.5566, 1.5600, 1.5618

Posted at 4.41 am EST