DAILY REVIEW 27 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (171pips) bear closing about 1/2 above the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is an ultralarge (196pips) bear closing near the low on average vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak. Yesterday's US data release resulted in Blockbuster US Dollar strength: Jan real weekly wages +1.2% vs 0.3% expected, US Jan durable goods orders +2.8% vs +1.6% exp, Capital goods orders non-defense ex air +0.6% vs +0.4% exp plus the Fed's Williams saying that if data "plays ball", the first rate rise could be this summer or Autumn and the Fed's Mester being in favor of putting a June rate hike on the table all pushed the US Dollar up and everything else under culminating in a 196pips drop for the EU pair.

The Oanda order book shows no significant trapped retail trader positions.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1200-1.1190
Potential fresh supply at 1.1245-1.1255, 1.1295-1.1308, 1.1405-1.1392, 1.1452-1.1440, 1.1495-1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1185-1.1165, 1.1150-1.1140 
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1250-1.1264, 1.1400-1.1385, 1.1465-1.1443, 1.1493-1.1500, 1.1540-1.1550, 1.1590-1.1600

SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.1250 level or higher before resuming the downtrend. The sentiment is now strongly down owing to the increasing US Dollar strength and weak Euro.

EU long levels: 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1250, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (169pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Day- The candle is a verey large spread (158pips bear closing near the low on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book does not have any particular bias on trapped traders. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5295-1.5310, 1.5200-1.5210, 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5445-1.5458,1.5466-1.5479, 1.5550, 1.5650, 1.5700
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5555-1.5560, 1.5600, 1.5615-1.5620, 1.5690-1.5700 
Potential long stops: 1.5395-1.5385, 1.5310-1.5290, 1.5280-1.5265, 1.5211-1.5200, 1.5195-1.5178
SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.5445 level or higher before reversing to test yesterday's low.

GU long levels: 1.5400-1.5393, 1.5350, 1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5450, 1.5475, 1.5500,1.5550, 1.5573, 1.5590, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 1.35 am EST