DAILY REVIEW 12 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (241pips) upthrust closing on high vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a below average spread (67pips) bull "pseudo-hammer" closing near the high on low vol<27days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying interest.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak.  Price remains in a tight range. as ongoing talks on Greece's debt bailout continues. The Ukraine situation also adds safe haven currency strength thereby keeping the Euro and other risk currencies pegged back.

The sentiment for the Euro remains bearish with the ongoing Greek issue. The SM corrective cycle long for reload of short positions does seem to have commenced and is likely to continue but SM are likely to clear weak shorts before collecting long orders. 
Based on the Oanda order book, there is significant volume trapped short.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1275-1.1250, 1.1220-1.1195 
Potential fresh supply at 1.1400, 1.1450, 1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1270-1.1245, 1.1200  
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1368-1.1375, 1.1400, 1.1540-1.1570, 1.1595-1.1610

There is a significant volume of traders trapped short. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to around the 1.1350 level or higher to fade the weak shorts before reversing to around 1.1275 or lower before resuming the corrective upward movement. 

EU long levels: 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1355, 1.1382, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped further on USD strength. It is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a large spread (363pips) bull large body spinning top closing about 1/4 off the high on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a below average spread (80pips) bear "pseudo-upthrust" closing on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests some downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

SM pushed prices just short of the 1.5300 key level yesterday but retraced sharply since then. Prices continued to push lower as SM looks to rebuild short term long positions for a continuation of the corrective move upward. The strengthening of the USD is in line with the ongoing Ukraine and Greek crisis as well. The SM cycle remains biased long with a significant volume of traders trapped short but based on the order flow will likely see weak longs taken out before the push back upward. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 (unchanged)
Potential supply stacks: 1.5340-60, 1.5400, 1.5450
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5290-1.5310, 1.5348-80, 1.5400 
Potential long stops/manipulation: 1.5195-1.5175, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5080 - 70, 1.5050
SM is likely to continue selling pressure to fade weak longs to the current low of 1.5217 or lower before reversing take stops are 1.5400 or higher.

GU long levels: 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5300, 1.5350, 1.5347, 1.5415, 1.5478, 1.5566, 1.5600, 1.5618

Posted at 4.43 am EST