DAILY REVIEW 23 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (171pips) bear closing about 1/2 above the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a very large spread (150pips) bull near-doji closing 1/3 off the high on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak even though a deal on the Greek debt has been agreed over the weekend.

The Oanda order book reveals a significant volume trapped long but there are no significant stops.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1305-1.1295, 1.1280-1.1260, 1.1220-1.1195 
Potential fresh supply at 1.1450, 1.1495-1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1270-1.1245, 1.1200 (no significant volumes seen) 
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1465-1.1443, 1.1493-1.1500, 1.1540-1.1550, 1.1590-1.1600

Price opened with a 11pips gap up but has been diving since then and SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around the 1.1377 level or lower to fade the weak longs before reversing to resume the corrective upward movement. 

EU long levels: 1.1377, 1.1360, 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (169pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Day- The candle is a normal spread (91pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on average vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

The SM cycle remains biased long. There is a significant volume of traders trapped long. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5295-1.5300, 1.5200-1.5210, 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5425-1.5440, 1.5460-1.5475, 1.5500, 1.5535-1.5550, 1.5650
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5470-1.5480, 1.5490-1.5505, 1.5527-1.5535, 1.5600 
Potential long stops: 1.5320-1.5290, 1.5280-1.5255, 1.5238-1.5220, 1.5195-1.5178
SM is likely to continue selling pressure to fade weak longs to the 1.5320 or lower before reversing to continue the corrective move long.

GU long levels: 1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5455, 1.5478, 1.5570, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 7.00 am EST