DAILY REVIEW 10 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (241pips) upthrust closing on high vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a normal spread (89pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak.  

The sentiment for the Euro remains bearish with the ongoing Greek issue. The SM corrective cycle long for reload of short positions looks to have commenced and is likely to continue but SM are likely to clear weak shorts before collecting long orders. 
Based on the Oanda order book, there is significant volume trapped short.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1310-1.1290, 1.1275-1.1250, 1.1220-1.1195 
Potential fresh supply at 1.1400, 1.1450, 1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1300, 1.1240-1.1230, 1.1200-1.1185  
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1350-1.1360, 1.1375-1.1385, 1.1540-1.1570, 1.1595-1.1610

There is a significant volume of traders trapped short. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to around the 1.1350 level or higher to fade the weak shorts before reversing to around 1.1300 or lower before resuming the corrective upward movement. 

EU long levels: 1.1295, 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1355, 1.1382, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped further on USD strength. It is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a large spread (363pips) bull large body spinning top closing about 1/4 off the high on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a large spread (141pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<28days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

Prices have remained in a tight range and will likely be positioned by the upcoming UK Manufacturing data later. The SM cycle remains biased long with a significant volume of traders trapped short. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 (unchanged)
Potential supply stacks: 1.5340-60, 1.5400, 1.5450
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5265-77, 1.5290-1.5310, 1.5348-80, 1.5400 
Potential long stops/manipulation: 1.5179-1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5080 - 70, 1.5050
There is no significant potential fresh supply, possible short term manipulation level for an intraday short trade is at 1.5267. SM is likely to continue buying pressure to fade weak shorts to around 1.5267 or higher before reversing to fade breakouts and then continuing the corrective upward move.

GU long levels: 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels: 1.5267, 1.5300, 1.5350, 1.5347, 1.5415, 1.5478, 1.5566, 1.5600, 1.5618

Posted at 3.17 am EST