DAILY REVIEW 16 February 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (172pips) bull closing about 1/4 off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Daily- The candle is a below average sprea (63pips) bear "near doji" closing  low vol<29days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak and the European leaders meet again today in an attempt to restructure the Greek debt.

The sentiment for the Euro remains bearish even without the ongoing Greek issue. The SM corrective cycle long for reload of short positions has commenced and is likely to continue. 

The Oanda order book reveals a significant volume trapped short.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1275-1.1250, 1.1220-1.1195 
Potential fresh supply at 1.1450, 1.1480-1.1490, 1.1495-1.1500
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1375-1.1343, 1.1270-1.1245, 1.1200  
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1433-1.1450, 1.1493-1.1500, 1.1540-1.1550, 1.1590-1.1600

SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to around the 1.1450 level or higher to fade the weak shorts before reversing to around 1.1375 or lower before resuming the corrective upward movement. 

EU long levels: 1.1370, 1.1260, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped further on USD strength. It is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (225pips) bull closing just off the high on vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a small spread (51pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

Prices opened with a small +22pips gao up that was quickly closed and reversed with a current new high of 1.5433 The SM cycle remains biased long with a significant volume of traders trapped short. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 (unchanged)
Potential supply stacks: 1.5435-1.5445, 1.5460-1.5475, 1.5500, 1.5535-1.5550, 1.5650
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5435-1.5460, 1.5500, 1.5527-1.5550, 1.5600 
Potential long stops: 1.5385-1.5375, 1.5360-1.5330, 1.5260-1.5230 
SM is likely to continue buying pressure to fade weak shorts to the 1.5450 or higher before reversing to fade weak longs.

GU long levels: 1.5325, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5455, 1.5478, 1.5570, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 4.43 am EST