DAILY REVIEW 31 Jul 2013
EU: Daily narrow-spread (68pips) bear doji (0.3pips difference between open/close) on low vol>1 day with daily bearish volume divergence. It is déjà-vu as price closed at 1.3261 (same as Monday’s close) just above the daily ema200  1.3249. So we saw a daily up and down sweep by SM trapping traders on both sides in the range. Although there is continued bearish volume divergence, price has held in a range and in creating a daily doji after a fall from a key level will only induce more shorts, perfect for SM stocking inventory prior to going long as Net shorts in EU continue to increase. We have the FOMC statement tomorrow which will probably be the catalyst. SM will likely push prices down to garner more orders prior to the move up pre-FOMC, especially if the intent is to push through 1.3000 to the 1.3390 – 1.3400 daily supply area. We need also to be mindful that there is possible technical trend line “resistance” at 1.3325 and 88.6%fib at 1.3338 Having said that, prior to FOMC, I will also be open to short at the 1.300 key level if I have a setup to ride down.
EU long levels: 1.3240, 1.3225, 1.3210  EU short levels: 1.3300, 1.3330, 1.3390, 1.3400, 1.3420 

GU: Daily candle is a wide-spread (131pips) bear closing just off the low on below-average vol>1day which suggests a continued SM mark-down move. We also note that Net long positions have increased. The candle close suggests more mark-down before going back up. As this is a mark-down move by SM, it is likely for a retrace to take out weak shorts before continuing the move down. As I write this, there is H4 bullish volume divergence but price is close enough to the key level 1.5200 and the previous breakout level of 1.5180 and may stall to retrace at around these levels so I will look to take a long for a retracement trade if possible and look to short from 1.5280, 1.5300, 1.5319 but not any lower. 
GU long levels:  1.5220, 1.5200, 1.5180, 1.5150, 1.5120 GU short levels: 1.5280, 1.5300, 1.5319

DAILY REVIEW  30 Jul 2013

EU: Daily narrow-spread (54pips) bear candle on low vol<4 days closing almost ½ off the low. Price closed at 1.3261 which is just above the daily ema200  1.3249. The daily candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. Well, yesterday EU did not exactly go the way of Buzz Lightyear’s “to infinity and beyond” just yet. Anyway, it is just another opportunity for a second bite of the cherry. Based on the lack of selling interest, SM will be likely to continue the selling pressure to rope in more shorts before reversing back up possibly at around yesterday’s lows. However, a failure to close above 1.3270 during London may see a deeper drop. Nothing has really changed as there is yet to be any fundamental bias-changing news, at least not until FOMC and NFP this week.

EU long levels: 1.3238, 1.3225, 1.3210  EU short levels: 1.3300, 1.3330, 1.3390, 1.3400, 1.3420

GU: Daily candle is a normal-spread (85pips) bear closing on low vol<44days which suggests a SM mark-down move. A look at the 2 day candles reveal low volume <35candles.  The candle close suggests more mark-down before going back up. The mark-down on such low volume suggests that SM is repositioning for a long, fading all the weak longs since last week (broker’s open orders last week were net long, now it has just turned net short telling me that SM has managed to induce retail shorts so no prizes for guessing what SM will do next….). Generally the lower SM pushes price during Asia and London, the more likely that we are closer to the reversal levels. However as the ratio of net shorts is not significantly high yet, I will take a short if I get a setup at around 1.5362 for a short term trade.

GU long levels:  1.5300, 1.5277, 1.5262 GU short levels: 1.5362, 1.5422, 1.5433

Note: We must take trades only when we see setups, no matter what system we trade.  

DAILY REVIEW  29 Jul 2013

EU: Weekly bull candle closing near high on vol<9 weeks Daily narrow-spread (45 pips) doji candle on low vol<3 days with bearish volume divergence. Price closed just below the weekly ema 200  (1.3293). With the daily 1.3390 – 1.3400 supply area within reach, there is possible technical trend line resistance at 1.333 and 88.6%fib at 1.3338. The previous accumulated 2days volume is increased, slightly above average and with the candle close just off the highs which suggests more upside. Last Friday saw prices hold within a tight range with SM unwilling to allow prices to fall below 1.3251. Net short EU positions have increased. This will likely see SM fade the shorts, push up and test the daily supply levels. We may see SM create buying pressure, reverse into selling pressure to pick up shorts, maybe with a stop run of the 1.3300 key level or the technical trend line 1.3333 and then reversing back upwards after a stop run to the lows around 1.3270.

EU long levels: 1.3267, 1.3255  EU short levels: 1.3300, 1.3330, 1.3390, 1.3400, 1.3420

GU: Weekly is a bull candle closing 1/3 off the high on vol<9 weeks. Daily candle is a narrow-spread bear (80 pips) small-bodied bear spinning top closing low vol<3 days which suggests no selling pressure.  Last week’s price action saw price test, breakthrough and then close just below the 61.8 Fib (1.5390) at 1.5376 suggesting that supply at this Fib level has been absorbed and price can now make it’s way up to the daily ema200 at 1.5477 – 1.5530 SM is likely to create buying pressure before reversing to fade the weak longs, pick up orders at the lows and then reverse back up. Without clear strong supply levels within reach, it would make sense for SM to stay within 1.5433, inducing more shorts as traders see the long h1 pin bar to the left by a stop run to 1.5422, reverse down to take stops below Asia low and then move back into the long technical trend continuation.

GU long levels:  1.5375, 1.5355 GU short levels: 1.5422, 1.5433, 1.5485, 1.5500, 1.5525 

DAILY REVIEW  26 Jul 2013

EU: Daily wide-spread (130pips) bull candle on near-average vol<1day with bearish volume divergence closing off the highs at 1.3275 after bouncing off the weekly ema200  1.3293. This puts the daily 1.3390 – 1.3400 supply area within reach. Although there is a daily bearish volume divergence, the accumulated 2days/3days volume is increasing with the candle close near the highs. This suggests that there is strength for this move to continue. The lower volume on the daily basis implies that this is more of a mark-up move by SM rather than herd-driven therefore we should be ready to take the ride back down when price hits the daily supply levels to fade the increased net short sellers in the market. Being a Friday, it will not surprise me to see a few “sweep the board” moves where prices may move down and then up and then down. Price has held within 27pips from the high last night during Asia. If SM intend to push up, I expect them to create buying pressure and maybe stoprun the 1.34000 key level, reverse and create selling pressure to get more shorts on board before reversing back upwards and away. My suspicion is that they may  even drive down a little deeper to look more convincing before they reverse long so I will watch price action closely before jumping in. I have a long bias today so my short levels will be at the manipulation levels for the first stophunt move and thereafter at the daily supply levels at the end of the anticipated move. Looking at the volume divergence, I also suspect that if SM moves up today, we may have a gap down on Monday, having seen this kind of thing happen enough at these types of levels but having put this in black and white, I don’t have a crystal ball and things can change so watch the price action closely.

EU long levels: 1.3245, 1.3227, 1.3210  EU short levels: 1.3295, 1.3300, 1.3330, 1.3390, 1.3400, 1.3420

GU: Daily candle is a wide-spread bear (171pips) wide-bodied bull spinning top closing 46pips off the high on average vol>1day. The price action yesterday was a classic “wash and rinse” by SM to shake out the weak shorts and longs. Yesterday I wrote “The volume in this down move is not convincing to consider a full blown reversal so I will still consider a long trade….” There is daily bearish volume divergence but more importantly the candle close and increased volume in thin trading hours suggests SM fading this move. There is also bearish volume divergence on a 2 daily basis which signals a highly probable impending reversal. The daily ema200 at 1.5477 is sitting just below the daily drop-base-drop supply level at 1.5482 – 1.5530. There is also confluence with the 78.6% fib which makes this a high probability reversal area. SM will likely create selling pressure to fade the weak longs and then reverse upward. Whether they will wipe up and down again like yesterday is anybody’s guess so as always I will stick as close to the edges as possible.

GU long levels:  1.5350, 1.5321 GU short levels: 1.5405, 1.5433, 1.5485, 1.5500, 1.5525 

Wish everyone good trading and a great weekend. Click on the follow me if you like this free blog, I will be posting some other stuff in the VSAnalytics google+ page specially just for you.

DAILY REVIEW  25 Jul 2013

EU: The daily candle is a below normal-spread (80pips) bear spinning top on near-average vol >4days with bearish vol divergence. Price closed 1.31997, just a little below 1.3200 key level.  Price tested but was rejected at the previous breakout level of 1.3253 with SM taking stops at 1.3255 and reversing. The candle close and increased volume yesterday suggests that there is buying going on. Price has not reached the daily 1.3390 – 1.3400 supply area yet but the last 186pips took 22 H4 candles whilst the previous 178pip move took 8 H4 candles suggesting that the push up is starting to lose momentum.  

Price is close to the daily ema800 at 1.3249 (my apologies I wrote ema200 yesterday).  After 3 days of rise, there is always the possibility of a reversal or correction. Today, I want SM to establish Asia high/low to gauge where they decide to set their initial levels. If the Asia high is about the same as yesterday (1.3325), my suspicion is that they may not fully go all the way to 1.3255 to spike. If there are already weak longs trapped, they will not release these guys. On the technical side, we should be looking out for possible Head&Shoulder retest of right shoulder at 1.3239, a spike/upthrust through this level  followed by a setup will see me taking a short. Price closed above the 1.3163 levels so if SM stopruns the key level 1.3200 or yesterday’s lows, I will be prepared to go long.

EU long levels: 1.3200, 1.3180, 1.3163  EU short levels: 1.3240, 1.3255, 1.3305

GU: Daily candle is a normal-spread bear (101pips) closed off the low on below average vol>4days. The daily bearish volume divergence played out as expected and reversed to a low of 1.5288. The volume in this down move is not convincing to consider a full blown reversal so I will still consider a long trade with a setup. Do note that the 1.5390/1.5400 level is still a possible reversal level so I will be cautious if these levels are reached. A possible SM strategy could be to create selling pressure testing close to or even spiking yesterday’s lows and then reversing upward.  Another possibility is that they create buying pressure to fade the weak shorts before reversing back down, in this scenario, I will look for setups at the breakout level of 1.5350 and also the next level at 1.5366. I take entries only with setups confirming the trade.
GU long levels:  1.5290 GU short levels: 1.5354, 1.5366, 1.5390, 1.5400 

DAILY REVIEW 24 Jul 2013 
The daily EU candle is a below normal-spread (75pips) bull just off the high on vol >1days with clear bearish vol divergence. Price has closed above the FOMC spike high 1.3205. With the volume yesterday slightly higher than Mon and the price closing near the high, SM is likely to push higher. Price is close to the daily ema200 at 1.3249, this is a key moving average closely watched by many traders. This is also about the previous breakout retest level on a daily basis that was rejected at 1.3253 therefore even though the price has not reached the daily 1.3390 – 1.3400 supply area yet, this would be a possible area for SM to fade the weak longs to restock their inventory. SM has been creating selling pressure to fade the weak longs since last night which may well mean that they have commenced stocking up to go long later. While my bias is still long, I will be prepared to take profit at the 1.3250 level if price stalls with clear stopruns to the level and take a short back down. On the other hand, if price is able to breakthrough and does it on higher vol with each high, I’ll just hold the trade and look for 1.3290 – 1.3300 which is a previous congestion breakout level. If price actually closes below yesterday’s low during London, I will be looking to short at the retest of the breakout level as SM may go a bit lower before resuming the up move. 
EU long levels: 1.3184, 1.3163 EU short levels: 1.3250, 1.3305 

GU: Daily candle small-spread small-body bullish spinning top (75pips) closed just off the high on vol>1day. Keeping in mind that we had bearish vol divergence yesterday and yet price made a higher high to 1.5390, the narrow body and range reeks of SM intention to sell. With H4 bearish divergence already playing out in Asia with the sell pressure created, if they stall above 1.5325 (yesterday’s low) and push back up, a stoprun/spike through the 1.5400 key level will see me go short as this has the possibility to reach the 1.5280 – 1.5260 level before reversing. If they break yesterday’s low during London, I will look to short at the retest of the breakout. GU long levels: 1.5325, 1.5280, 1.5260 GU short levels: 1.5390, 1.5400

My apologies for the review being a little late today because of my dental visit. Thankfully it was good and I’m good to go. Blessings to all.

DAILY REVIEW  23 Jul 2013

EU: The daily candle is a below normal-spread (82pips)  bull closing 2/3 off the high on vol <38days with clear bearish vol divergence.  This potentially indicates no demand. Price closed above the previous 6 days but failed to close above the FOMC spike high 1.3205, this will likely give the impression that a reversal south is due soon. Price is nowhere near the daily 1.3390 – 1.3400 supply area. SM will likely test or break the 1.3217 to create buying pressure then reverse to create selling pressure to fade the weak longs before moving up again. The weak longs trap move has high probability around the previous rejection level of 1.3217. If they break this level, a probable reversal level will be 1.3235-1.3253 being the previous H4 retest of breakout. My bias is long but I will take the short if I get a setup at the levels mentioned.

EU long levels: 1.3160, 1.3149  EU short levels: 1.3217, 1.3250

GU: Daily wide-spread (126pips) bull closed just off the high on vol <13days with bearish volume divergence. A possible move for the SM would be to take stops at or around the 1.5383 or even 1.5400 key level and reverse to fade the weak longs by creating selling pressure before going back up. If they break this level, the next possible trap level is around 1.5428 however, with many stops just above 1.5400, this may be the level from which to create the selling pressure.

GU long levels:  1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5272 GU short levels: 1.5383, 1.5400, 1.5428

Note: Although there is bearish volume divergence on the daily, it needs to be at a significant level of supply/demand and we need to see it confirmed in the smaller time frames to take the trade.  

DAILY REVIEW  22 Jul 2013

EU weekly: narrow-spread bull hammer-like candle closing just off the high on vol <8weeks. Daily narrow-spread bull spinning top closing off the high on vol <37days.  On it’s own it would seem to indicate no buying interest  but the context that I see this is that it happened late last Fri as a preparation to push up further and confirmed my expectation that I discussed in last Friday’s review.  When I woke up, the Asian range had already broken Friday’s high. The high of 1.3205 created by the latest FOMC news has not been retested yet and looks like a retest is due and also the possibility of 1.3250 being reached today.  A close above 1.3205 today will expose the daily 1.3390 – 1.3400 supply area. SM will likely create buying pressure and then reverse to fade weak longs before moving up again. The weak longs trap move has high probability around the previous rejection level of 1.3175. I will be looking for long trades.

EU long levels: 1.3130, 1.3123  EU short levels: 1.3175, 1.3205

GU weekly normal-spread  bull closing just off the high on below average vol. Daily near-normal spread (86pips) bull closed off the high on vol <12days. Asia price action has broken Friday’s high of 1.5281. A close above 1.5300 will likely see a test of the ema200 around 1.5480 – 1.5500. The close and relative low vol on the weekly suggests SM buying and mark up. As Smart Money has been creating buying pressure in Asia so far, a possible move would be to take stops at or around the 1.5300 key level  and reverse to fade the weak longs, create sell pressure before going back up.

GU long levels:  1.5263, 1.5242, 1.5225 GU short levels: 1.5305, 1.5320

Note: Although fundamentals do not support any Euro strength, I will trade what I see develop on the volume. It takes volume to move prices either up or down and I have learnt to trade what I read and see and not what the SM wants me to believe. Even when wrong, trading at the manipulation or supply/demand levels reduces our risk and maximizes our profit and trading is all about risk to reward whatever system we use.  

DAILY REVIEW 19 Jul 2013
EU weekly: bullish engulfing on very high vol closing 1/3 off the high.  Daily narrow-spread bear hammer closing near 2/3 off the low on average  vol <36days. Note that SM has already faded the entire range of Tue. The candle close and very low vol suggests more upside. As I write, the Asian range has already broken yesterday's high. The likely SM move will be to continue the buying pressure and then reverse to fade weak longs before moving up again. The likely levels for the weak longs trap move will be the previous rejection level of 1.3150. If price pushes to 1.3175/1.3205 with vol divergence during London, I will consider the short on min H1 vol divergence, it it happens after a NY reversal from down to up, I will leave it as it will likely rise further and hopefully hold the long if I am in it.

EU long levels: 1.3110, 1.3090, 1.3080  EU short levels: 1.3150, 1.3175, 1.3205

GU weekly bull closing 1/3 off high on very high vol. Daily bull hammer closed just off high on no demand vol >2days. Price is approaching supply level 1.5280 - 1.5300. Yesterday's candle is still an inside day.  The close and low vol indicates possible no demand but a look at the 2 day chart indicates possible strength to test supply.A breakout of an inside day usually has power to move rapidly. The likely Smart Money play would be sell pressure before going back up to break through to test supply.

GU long levels: 1.5200 GU short levels: 1.5267, 1.5280, 1.5300