DAILY REVIEW 11 March 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed well below the monthly 1.0762 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a large spread (401pips) bear closing at the low on low vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a very large spread (162pips) bear closing at the low on very highg vol>23days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.   
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak with the Greece still unreloved at this point in time leading to risk-aversion flows out of the Euro.

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short volumes as the majority of trapped longs have been removed with no clear demand levels to be seen for some distance. Meaning that there could be a potential short fade move soon but even so, the bias remains pretty much short. 
Potential Fresh demand: no significant volume seen at current levels, next level of interest 1.0500
Potential fresh supply: no significant levels, 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0750-1.0762, 1.0895-1.0905, 1.0950, 1.1000, 1.1100, 1.1200, 1.1300, 1.1400
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0664-1.0640, 1.0600
Trapped short (stop) orders: no significant levels, 1.090-1.0920, 1.0940-1.0950, 1.1000, 1.1100

SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the low at 1.0664 or lower and reverse to fade weak shorts upto around the 1.0800 level or higher before resuming the downtrend.   

EU long levels:1.0650, 1.0500

EU short levels: 1.0800, 1.0900, 1.0975, 1.1100, 1.1020, 1.1155, 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is still likely headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective reversal level. Currently price is headed toward the 1.4850 monthly pivot which is also a possible level of support/demand.
Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a large spread (396pips) bear closing at the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Day- The candle is a normal spread (102pips) bear closing 1/3 above the low on very high vol>17days. The candle close and volume suggests buying. We should expect it to test short term supply levels, if any, before resuming the down move.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

GU stubbornly refused to drop even as the EU tanked on bearish sentiment, resulting in new lows for the EG pair. SM faded weak shorts yesterday to 1.5100 before dropping and oscillating a few times. The Oanda order book reveals more trapped short traders at this time. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5000-1.4980
Potential supply stacks: no significant levels, 1.5192-1.5220,1.5295-1.5305, 1.5310-1.5337,
Potential short (trapped) stops: no significant levels, 1.5090-1.5110, 1.5131-1.5150, 1.5162-1.5175, 1.5185-1.5200, 1.5260-1.5275, 1.5290-1.5305
Potential long stops: no significant levels, 1.5030-1.5000, 1.4905-1.4935
SM is likely to retest yesterday's high at 1.5100 level or higher to 1.5133 before reversing to fade test the current low at 1.5028. A close and hold above 1.5133 may mean 

more upside to test the breakout levels at 1.5200. 

GU long levels: 1.5050, 1.5020, 1.5000, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 2.14 am EST