DAILY REVIEW 4 March 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a near average spread (220pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<7weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a small spread (62pips) bear "near-doji" closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but with a possible upward fade prior to the downward continuation.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak. The good US data plus the FED's members speeches regarding rate hikes commencement had created a sentiment of expected US Dollar strength and that is likely to continue.

The Oanda order book shows more volume of trapped long positions with price closer to the lower order stacks.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1150-1.1140, 1.1100-1.1090
Potential fresh supply at 1.1240-1.1255, 1.1290-1.1308, 1.1340-1.1350, 1.1405-1.1392
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1160-1.1140, 1.1120-1.1110, 1.1100-1.1090 
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1250-1.1270

The market looks to be waiting for the key ECB event this Thursday and of course also the US NFP on Friday. Prices oscillated as expected and SM pushed prices to 1.1216 before reversing back down. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the low of 1.1153 or lower before reversing to fade weak shorts. 

EU long levels: 1.1150, 1.1110, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is still likely headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective reversal level but the current monthly cycle looks corrective long bias.
Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a below average spread (219pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol<8weeks. The candle close and volume suggests a lack of buying pressure. 

Day- The candle is a small spread (53pips) bear "near doji" closing on low vol<5days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book still shows more volume of trapped long position traders. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5320-1.5340, 1.5295-1.5310, 1.5200-1.5210, 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5395-1.5405, 1.5421-1.5435, 1.5445-1.5455,1.5465-1.5475, 1.5490-1.5505, 1.5523-1.5551, 1.5650, 1.5700
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5555-1.5560, 1.5600, 1.5615-1.5620, 1.5690-1.5700 
Potential long stops: 1.5350, 1.5330-1.5290, 1.5280-1.5265, 1.5211-1.5200, 1.5195-1.5178
SM is likely to fade weak longs to the 1.5340 level or lower before reversing upward with the SM cycle. The UK Services data is out later at 4.30 am EST and may be the means by which SM positions prices, usually against the intended direction.

GU long levels: 1.5340, 1.5330, 1.5300, 1.5250, 1.5200, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500,1.5550, 1.5573, 1.5590, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 2.37 am EST