DAILY REVIEW 1 July 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size of wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (280pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol< 10 weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a large spread (132pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga, with Greece declining a deal on Friday and the creditors denying Greece an extension over the weekend plus Greek banks being shut for the week, with the referendum looming....

The Oanda order book shows overwhelming net trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1110-1.1100, 1.1082-1.1065, 1.1000-1.0980
Potential fresh supply: 1.1197-1.1205
Trapped long (stop) orders: not visible in net positions
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1144-1.1190, 1.1240-1.1250, 1.1278-1.1291, 1.1300-1.1340

Net positions show the bulk of traders trapped short, note that volatility may well cause a whipsaw to clear up and down as these volumes are not massed at any significant levels. Volume remains thin as the SM retraces downwards. SM is likely to continue fading weak longs to 1.1118 or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1120-1.1100, 1.0998-1.0985, 1.0948-1.0934 

EU short levels: 1.1233, 1.1272-1.1288


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible.

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (242pips) bear large body spinning top slosing on high vol<5days The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a below average spread (83pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but also possible commencement of buying.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a mix of traders trapped in both directions no significant bias in retail trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5657-1.5645, 1.5605-1.5592, 1.5505-1.5495, 1.5475-1.5465, 1.5355-1.5340
Potential supply stacks: 1.5747-1.5770
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5670-1.5655, 1.5640-1.5615
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5767-1.5820, 1.5926-1.5952  

SM is likely fade weak longs testing the current week's low 1.5661 or lower before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.5630--1.5610, 1.5542-1.5535 

GU short levels: 1.5802, 1.5827, 1.5916-1.5930

Posted at 02.33 am EST