DAILY REVIEW 9 July 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size of wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (324pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (118pips) bull closing near the high on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga places a lot of questions on the future of the Eurozone as its leaders must now find a solution for Greece. Forcing the Greeks out of the Eurozone is not desirable whereas forgiving the debt may set an unsustainable precedent for the other indebted member countries who had already taken the austerity pill. This makes for a week of volatility as the market begins to find a direction. 

The Oanda order book shows overwhelming net trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0982-1.0973, 1.0924-1.0915
Potential fresh supply: 1.1065-1.1075, 1.1092-1.11131.1230
Long (stop) orders: 1.0975-1.0963
Short (stop) orders: 1.1117-1.1135, 1.1140-1.1150 

The FOMC meeting minutes yesterday was pretty much a non-event as various members talked about the Greek problem and others talked about raising rates, etc. meaning we had nothing fresh. The Oanda platform Net positions still show significant bulk of traders trapped short and hardly any net long or short stops level. Prices have pushed higher post-FOMC to a new high of 1.1123 and SM is likely to retest this level or higher before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1090-1.1080, 1.1075-1.1065

EU short levels: 1.1120-32, 1.1145-1.1150, 1.1213, 1.1235


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (233pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol>23weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a large spread (137pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a mix of traders trapped in both directions without any significant bias in retail trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5300-1.5280, 1.5225, 1.5203-1.5170
Potential supply stacks: 1.5435-1.5445, 1.5537-1.5550, 1.5586-1.5605, 1.5688-1.5705, 1.5827-1.5850
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5372-1.5343, 1.5327-1.5310, 1.5254-1.5224
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5458-.15470, 1.5480-1.5490, 1.5503-1.5513, 1.5553-1.5570, 1.5600-1.5610, 1.5621-1.5655, 1.5780-1.5815, 1.5922-1.5952  

SM has moved prices higher post-FOMC as they fade the weak shorts. There are now a significant number of Net trapped short positions and SM and clear their stops before reversing. SM is likely to 1.5433 or higher before reversing.  

GU long levels: 1.5220, 1.5180

GU short levels: 1.5433, 1.5450-1.562, 1.5480, 1.5543, 1.5566, 1.5620, 1.5640

Posted at 02.36 am EST