DAILY REVIEW 2 July 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size of wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (280pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol< 10 weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (129pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga, with Greece declining a deal on Friday and the creditors denying Greece an extension over the weekend plus Greek banks being shut for the week, with the referendum looming....

The Oanda order book shows overwhelming net trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1046-1.1030, 1.1005-1.0990
Potential fresh supply: 1.1092-1.1105, 1.1197-1.1205
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1028-1.1014
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1095-1.1110, 1.1164-1.1182

Net positions show the bulk of traders trapped short, pre-NFP price positioning is in progress. SM is likely to retest today's low 1.1031 or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1031-1.1014, 1.0998-1.0985, 1.0948-1.0934 

EU short levels: 1.1095-1.1110, 1.1165-1.1177


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible.

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (242pips) bear large body spinning top slosing on high vol<5days The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a large spread (144pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a mix of traders trapped in both directions no significant bias in retail trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5500-1.5490, 1.5475-1.5465,  1.5450-1.5433, 1.5300-1.5345
Potential supply stacks: 1.5615-1.5628, 1.5644-1.5655, 1.5747-1.5770
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5540-1.5521, 1.5490-1.5480 (low vol)
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5616-1.5627, 1.5674-1.5690, 1.5722-1.5740, 1.5781-1.5815, 1.5922-1.5952  

In view of tomorrow's NFP release, prices will be positioned possibly against the expected direction. SM is likely to test the 1.5541 pivot before or lower before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.5630--1.5610, 1.5542-1.5535 

GU short levels: 1.5802, 1.5827, 1.5916-1.5930

Posted at 04.08 am EST