DAILY REVIEW 13 July 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size of wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (299pips) bull closing slightly off the high on high vol>4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is an ultrahigh large spread (186pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga places a lot of questions on the future of the Eurozone as its leaders must now find a solution for Greece acceptable to the other EU members following the referendum's "No" vote. Yesterday's meeting ended in an emphatic rejection of further aid without demonstrable reforms, which are demanded in the next few days before any consideration of further aid. Last week's FOMC minutes and Yellen's Q & A revealed a likely rate hike this year whilst acknowledging salient weaknesses in the jobs market not accurately reflected in the data. All this makes for an interesting trading week ahead.

The Oanda order book shows overwhelming net trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1005-1.0998, 1.0977-1.0965
Potential fresh supply: 1.1142-1.1155, 1.1195-1.1210
Long (stop) orders: 1.1106-1.1096, 1.1076-1.1062, 1.1044-1.1022
Short (stop) orders: 1.1223-1.1230 

Prices opened gapped down by 60pips following the EU rejection of further aid for Greece pending reform demands being met. The Oanda platform Net positions still show significant bulk of traders trapped short and hardly any net long or short stops level. SM is likely to induce more selling to around 1.1109 or lower before reversing to remove the weak shorts.

EU long levels: 1.1100-1.1090, 1.1077-1.1000, 1.1058, 1.1035, 1.1020, 1.0997-1.0989, 1.0965, 1.0925

EU short levels: 1.1196-1.1215, 1.1235


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (298pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests buying.

DAY - The candle is an ultralarge spread (186pips) bull closing near the high on high vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a mix of traders trapped in both directions without any significant bias in retail trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5300-1.5280, 1.5225, 1.5203-1.5170
Potential supply stacks: 1.5517-1.5535, 1.5600-1.5605, 1.5690-1.5705
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5482-1.5467, 1.5458-1.5449, 1.5327-1.5317, 1.5305-1.5295, 1.5239-1.5224
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5532-1.5560, 1.5624-1.5640, 1.5650-1.5662, 1.5700-1.5707, 1.5717-1.5725, 1.5780-1.5790, 1.5805-1.1817  

Prices opened slightly gapped down (11pips) but has since been closed. The Oanda platform shows both trapped long and short net positions. SM is likely to continue selling pressure to test 1.5480 or lower before reversing to test last Friday's high.  

GU long levels: 1.5480, 1.5457, 1.5409-1.5400, 1.5362, 1.5347-1.5342, 1.5328-1.5319

GU short levels: 1.5536, 1.5557, 1.5600, 1.5620, 1.5640, 1.5677, 1.5716-1.5726

Posted at 00.11 am EST