DAILY REVIEW 10 July 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size of wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (324pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a large spread (133pips) bear spinning top closing 1/3 off the low on average vol<2days. The candle close and volue suggests buying.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga places a lot of questions on the future of the Eurozone as its leaders must now find a solution for Greece. Forcing the Greeks out of the Eurozone is not desirable whereas forgiving the debt may set an unsustainable precedent for the other indebted member countries who had already taken the austerity pill. Being a Friday, expect weekend flows and SM sweeping up and down to take profits before Sunday's crunch deadline for Greece.

The Oanda order book shows overwhelming net trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.081-1.1057, 1.1007-1.0993
Potential fresh supply: 1.1127-1.1134
Long (stop) orders: 1.0990-1.0980
Short (stop) orders: 1.1133-1.1150 

Another look at the Oanda platform Net positions still show significant bulk of traders trapped short and hardly any net long or short stops level. Prices pushed higher as expected and SM used sentiment to wipe down to trap more shorts before going back up. Prices are back to pre-gap levels and poised to push upwards to remove the lower short stops whilst testing the resolve of the trapped shorts who may not be able to bear the pain. Prices have pushed back higher to a new high of 1.1132 and SM is likely to retest this level or higher before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1080-1.1060, 1.1010-1.1000

EU short levels: 1.1145-1.1150, 1.1165, 1.1213, 1.1225, 1.1237


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (233pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol>23weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a small spread (77pips) bull closing 2/3 off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a mix of traders trapped in both directions without any significant bias in retail trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5300-1.5280, 1.5225, 1.5203-1.5170
Potential supply stacks: 1.5517-1.5535, 1.5600-1.5605, 1.5690-1.5705
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5405-1.5380, 1.5344-1.5316
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5460-15470,1.5555-1.5580, 1.5624-1.5642, 1.5650-1.5660, 1.5784-1.5800, 1.5805-1.1817  

The Oanda platform shows both trapped long and short net positions whcih makes for potential sweeps by SM using news. SM is likely to continue buying pressure towards the breakout level 1.5530, so it is likely to test 1.5465 or higher before reversing.  

GU long levels: 1.5385-1.5365, 1.5342, 1.5328-1.5319

GU short levels: 1.5465, 1.5543, 1.5566, 1.5620, 1.5640

Posted at 05.12 am EST