DAILY REVIEW 14 July 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size of wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (299pips) bull closing slightly off the high on high vol>4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is an ultralarge spread (202pips) bear closing at the low on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga places a lot of questions on the future of the Eurozone as its leaders must now find a solution for Greece acceptable to the other EU members following the referendum's "No" vote. Yesterday's meeting ended in an emphatic rejection of further aid without demonstrable reforms, which are demanded in the next few days before any consideration of further aid. Last week's FOMC minutes and Yellen's Q & A revealed a likely rate hike this year whilst acknowledging salient weaknesses in the jobs market not accurately reflected in the data. All this makes for an interesting trading week ahead.

The Oanda order book shows overwhelming net trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0971-1.0965, 1.0924-1.0915
Potential fresh supply: 1.1098-1.1106, 1.1125-1.1135, 1.1200-1.1215
Long (stop) orders: 1.0965-1.0948, 1.0913-1.0905
Short (stop) orders: 1.1010-1.1030 

Prices made a new low to 1.0964 today as markets remain risk averse following the Greek "rescue deal" as the Greek PM must still make good on passing the various legislation by this Wednesday. The Oanda platform Net positions continue to show the significant bulk of traders trapped short and not particularly significant net long or short stops level. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.1012 or higher before reversing to retest the low.

EU long levels: 1.0977-1.0965, 1.0925-1.0913

EU short levels: 1.1012-1.1030, 1.1052-1.1060, 1.1097-1.1115, 1.1126-1.1136, 1.1196-1.1215, 1.1235


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (298pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests buying.

DAY - The candle is a normal spread (108pips) bear "pseudo" upthrust closing on average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a mix of traders trapped in both directions without any significant bias in retail trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5360-1.5340
Potential supply stacks: 1.5665-1.5680, 1.5692-1.5705, 1.5743-1.5753, 1.5791-1.5805
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5443-1.5425, 1.5325-1.5317, 1.5305-1.5295
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5472-1.5491, 1.5500-1.5510, 1.5549-1.5558, 1.5578-1.5608, 1.5628-1.5639, 1.5764-1.5657  

Prices tanked to finally follow sentiment of US Dollar strength. SM is likely to continue selling pressure to test the day low at 1.5450 or lower before reversing.  

GU long levels: 1.5423, 1.5400, 1.5362, 1.5347-1.5342, 1.5328-1.5319

GU short levels: 1.5500-1.5511, 1.5550-1.5557, 1.5575-1.5580, 1.5600, 1.5620, 1.5640, 1.5677, 1.5716-1.5726

Posted at 04.51 am EST