DAILY REVIEW 4 Nov 2013
EU: Weekly: The candle is a large spread (338pips) bear closing just off the low on vol>5weeks, the close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (109pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol<1day and the candle close and volume also suggests more downside. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3441 – 1.3501 SM has actually broken the 1.3461 level and taken stops about 20pips lower but failed to close below it, instead closing with a H1/H4 bullish volume divergence. As the 1.3461 is a significant level of support, this may well be a possible retracement upward before any further downward movement. It is also likely that after a straight drop of >300pips, it will be time for SM to remove the weaker shorts even if they want to push further south. SM has already induced shorts past Friday’s low and the likely move today will be to create selling pressure from Asia high to induce shorts again before reversing at the low to retrace and fade the weak shorts. 
EU long levels: 1.3441 EU short levels:  1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650


GU:  Weekly: the candle is a normal spread (300pips) bear closing just off the low on below average vol >3weeks. The close suggests more downside but the volume seems to indicate reducing selling intent. The Daily candle is a large spread (138pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<3days, the close suggests more downside but the volume suggests a lack of supply. Technicals: Daily 50%Fib @ 1.5842, Gap close @ 1.5872 The Asian range is 1.5902 – 1.5939 Price has also broken below Friday’s low but failed to close below. H4 also closed with bullish volume divergence earlier. While price may actually test the current low and retrace upwards, there is also the possibility of one more downward push to take the long gap traders’ stops before that since it is well within reach. Ultimately this business is about where SM can get their hands on orders to fulfill their targets. The likely SM move seeing as the range is still relatively tight may well be to drop from Asia high to induce shorts, test the current low or further to close the gap and reverse for the retracement long and take out weak shorts.  
GU long levels:  1.5860, 1.5835  GU short levels:  1.6005, 1.6025, 1.6075, 1.6100