EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (79pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on below average vol<1day. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3500 – 1.3523 (still within yesterday’s high). Looks very clear that SM has the low level shorts well and truly trapped and are poised to push further upward (see yesterday’s review for the reasoning). SM has already bounced off the 1.3500 key level and pushing upwards, this will likely end with them expanding the Asia high even upto yesterday’s high before reversing to create selling pressure to fade weak longs and induce more “low level” shorts, possibly to Asia low or slightly below to take out the weak longs that have already moved to breakeven before reversing upwards to continue the expected retracement. Possible manipulation level for potential reversal 1.3500, 1.3487.
EU long levels: 1.3500, 1.3487, 1.3477, 1.3451 EU short levels: 1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (76pips) bull closing ½ off the high on below average vol<1day, the close suggests some slowing of buying as it broke and closed above yesterday’s high but there is daily bearish volume divergence as price tested the previous TR breakout level of 1.6120. The Asian range is 1.6064 – 1.6085 With price already making >200pips from the swing low, and daily bearish divergence in place, a short at yesterday’s high is a possibility but with both the Euro and UK interest rate decisions due out, it will be an opportunity for SM to push to the 1.6150 – 1.6170 level to grab stops before reversing. SM has come close to the daily breakout level of 1.6061 during Asia and moving upward to fade weak shorts, likely to around 1.6095 – 1.6100 where they may reverse to fade the weak longs and induce more shorts by creating selling pressure before the news.
GU long levels: 1.6050, 1.6040, 1.6018, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6100, 1.6130, 1.6150, 1.6170, 1.6200
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