DAILY REVIEW 1 Nov 2013
EU: Monthly: the candle closed as a small spread (359pips) bull upthrust with a long wick to the top on below average vol >1month with bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a large spread (164pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol>30days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Asian range is 1.3539 – 1.3588 Technicals: Daily ema50 @ 1.3525 confluence with Daily Fib 38.2% @ 1.3553, Daily 50% Fib @1.3467 confluence with swing low 1.3461 on 25 Sep 2013. If 1.3461 is broken with a H1/H4 close below, the next demand level is the 1.3351 which is also the gap open level on 16 Sep 2013. Before this level, we have the Oct low of 1.3472 which may also be a manipulation level for SM. With Greece back on the agenda and the FED insisting that tapering is not off the table, EU sold off in volume confirming the pent up weekly and daily bearish volume divergences that were seen. Now we must know that SM does not drive huge volume, SM will step in as prices reach a clear level of demand/support. Although we have very high daily climatic volume, we have not seen stopping volume yet and today being a Friday, we may just see price test and find the reversal level or the next trading range (TR) before the next move, whether a continuation lower or a retest upward. Today will likely see a formation of the new TR before the next move. As EU has moved substantially, it will also be natural for SM to restock for moves in either direction. Being Friday and with no NFP today, I don’t expect the same kind of move as yesterday but what is probable will be for price to test the 1.3500 key level which is well within reach.  With the negative sentiment over Europe, SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to induce even more shorts to Asia low or lower before reversing upwards to leave these folks trapped over the weekend. 
EU long levels: 1.3539, 1.3525, 1.3500, 1.3472, 1.3461 EU short levels:  1.3590, 1.3620, 1.3650


GU:  Monthly: the candle is small spread (367pips) bear closing off the low on below average vol >1month. The close is just above the monthly ema50 1.6017 and the candle close and volume suggests no selling interest and perhaps even hints at a possible retest of the highs. The Daily candle is a small spread (63pips) bull near-doji closing on very high vol>9days.The candle close and volume suggests buying and possible stalling for a move back up. Technicals: Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.5941 confluence with Daily ema50 @ 1.5940 The Asian range is 1.6015 – 1.6045, pretty much the same as yesterday so we know that this is a range for either accumulation or redistribution. Yesterday’s price action saw SM pick up stops below the 1.6000 key level down to 1.5997 and although the daily close and volume suggests a slowing of the selling, price is nowhere near a significant demand level and is likely to push further downward to test the Fib38.2% @ 1.5940 confluence with daily ema50 @ 1.5932 SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure in tandem with EU before reversing to trap the low level shorts over the weekend. 
GU long levels:  1.6000, 1.5941, 1.5920, 1.5900  GU short levels:  1.6075, 1.6100, 1.6120 (previous breakout level), 1.6142, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380