DAILY REVIEW 5 December 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a very large spread (175pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on very high vol>24days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside but with selling. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2277, 1.2257, 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040 Supply: short-term: 1.2400, 1.2455, 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2733) Background: Euro's fundamentals remain weak and yesterday's meeting saw EU spike as no QE was mentioned, price tanked on later remarks from Draghi. The longer term bias remains downward as we head into the US NFP today. Yesterday, I wrote "Possible stops for weak longs at 1.2280-90..." SM went down to 1.2276 during the news before heading north. SM has wiped up and down 175pips yesterday and there really is no true supply or demand anywhere in this range. Some short term stops can be seen at 1,2400, 1.2460-70, 1.2500-10 and at the other side, 1.2350, 1.2330-20 SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the 1.2330 level and possibly even to around the 1.2300 and then reverse to around 1.2400 or the higher before they reverse for the continuation down.

EU long levels: 1.2350,1.2320, 1.2300, 1.2277, 1.2257, 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040

EU short levels: 1.2400, 1.2455, 1.2500, 1.2530


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (83pips) bear spinning top closing on very high vol>34days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5761, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905 Background: The fundamentals remain unchanged. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The current order book shows a significant bunch of volume trapped short. The possible stops are at 1.5830, 1.5850, 1.5875. Price remains in Monday's range (1.5584 -1.5762) SM is likely to the 1.5762 pivot or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. The technical trend is bearish but the current SM cycle is long.

GU long levels: 1.5620, 1.5600, 1.5581, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5761, 1.5775, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 04.45 am EST