DAILY REVIEW 1 December 2014



This review is posted as an overview for the week as it is way past the London and NY session today.

EU Analysis:

EU: Monthly- The candle is a small spread bull spinning top closing on very high vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Weekly- The candle is a below average spread (170pips) closing half off the high on low vol<8weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Daily- The candle is a below average spread (63pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2733) Background: Euro's fundamentals remain weak. The ECB and Germany remain divided over the necessity for implementing QE for the Euro. The order stacks at 1.2540, 1.2550, 1.2565, 1.2600, 1.2700 for the eventual push downwards are still in place. With the market eagerly awaiting the upcoming ECB meeting on Thursday,  SM is likely to fade the weak shorts back to around the 1.2633 or higher continuing the restocking of shorts before reversing for the continuation down.

EU long levels: 1.2355, 1.2266

EU short levels: 1.2600, 1.2635, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Month- The candle is a bear closing off the low on very high vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Week- The candle is a below average spread (211pips) bull pseudo "upthrust" closing on low vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests SM fading weak shorts and setting a bear trap as more downside can be expected later. Day- The candle is a large spread (122pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on average vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests buying but with downside expected. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5816, 1.5825 Background: Even with a strong PMI data, there is essentially no change to the fundamentals. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The order book does the SM fade of weak shorts in progress and a significant bunch of volume trapped short. The immediate order stacks are at 1.5780, 1.5800, 1.5830, 1.5850, 1.5875. SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure to fade the weak the breakout level 1.5823 pivot or higher before reversing to continue the downtrend. The trend remains down but the current SM cycle is long.

GU long levels: 1.5581, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 10.26 am EST