DAILY REVIEW 05 May 2014
EU: Monthly- the candle is a small spread (234pips) bull “hammer” closing just off the high on vol<35months. Weekly- the candle is a small spread (118pips) bull “hammer” closing just off the high on low vol>2weeks. The Daily candle is a below average spread (69pips) dragonfly doji closing on high vol>1day. The candle and volume suggests a bear trap. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3843 (Fib38.2% confluence) , 1.3832, 1.3800 (Fib 50% confluence) Supply: short-term  Background: NFP last Friday resulted in a very quick movement down and back up as SM took out all the weak short traders quite possibly not just because of NFP but also because of month end-flows delayed from Labour Day. Prices opened gapped up by about 16pips today with the gap already closed in early Asia trading. SM is likely to induce longs at Asia high or higher to the 1.3905 pivot before reversing.  A break and close below 1.3778 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3843, 1.3832, 1.3815, 1.3800, 1.3785, 1.3690 EU short levels:  1.3888, 1.3905, 1.3966, 1.400, 1.4050

GU: Monthly- the candle is a below average spread (360pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<15months. The candle close suggests more upside but the volume suggests SM markup. Weekly- the candle is a below average spread (141pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on low vol>2weeks with a continuing bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests we may see a reversal soon. The Daily candle is a small spread (73pips) bear reverse upthrust on high vol>1day. The candle close and volume in the current context suggests the commencement of selling. Levels of interest: short-term 1.6900 key level, Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term- 1.6859 (Fib 38.2% confluence), 1.6842 (Fib 50% confluence), 1.6825 (Fib 61.8%), 1.6810, 1.6800 Background: NFP last Friday resulted in SM doing exactly the same with month-end flows. Price opened with a small gap up (11pips) and has not closed the gap yet. SM is likely to induce longs by retesting the 1.6919 pivot before reversing for a potential reversal.  Only a close below 1.6761 would indicate a reversal back down.  
GU long levels:  1.6859, 1.6842, 1.6825, 1.6810, 1.6800 GU short levels: 1.6919, 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7042

Posted at 02.47 am EST