DAILY REVIEW 20 April 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (589pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is a normal spread (231pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

DAY- The candle is an average spread (81pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC Minutes release put in a nutshell simply says, "we want to raise rates but we won't tell you until we see more supporting data"..... This has led to continued USD weakness and will continue to do so.

Oanda order book:  Old trapped short volumes are still in the majority but with newly profitable longs from the 1.1350 level.

Potential demand stacks:  not applicable

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1350-1.1340, 1.1317-1.1307
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1459-1.1465, 1.1510-1.1605,1.1622-1.1635, 1.1670-1.1680

Prices pushed higher as analyzed. US Home Sales data release is due later today. SM is likely to create selling pressure to test the 1.1350 level or lower before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1350-1.1340, 1.1332, 1.1316-1.1305

EU short levels: 1.1384, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1450, 1.1494-1.1505, 1.1527-1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (610pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (257pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests initial seeling.
DAY- The candle is a large spread (148pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Volume remains thin and with trapped short volumes and newly profitable long volumes.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4377-1.4358, 1.4333-1.4322, 1.4282-1.4265, 1.4214-1.4205

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4409-1.4436, 1.4504-1.4517

UK employment data will be the main catalyst. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.4350 level or lower before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4350, 1.4320, 1.4307

GU short levels: 1.4420-1.4436, 1.4450-1.4460, 1.4485, 1.4515, 1.4600

Posted at 12.36 am EST