DAILY REVIEW 22 April 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (589pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is a normal spread (231pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

DAY- The candle is an above average spread (125pips) bear "upthrust" closing on average vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests selling.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC Minutes release put in a nutshell simply says, "we want to raise rates but we won't tell you until we see more supporting data"..... This has led to continued USD weakness and will continue to do so.

Oanda order book:  Newly trapped short volumes are significant from the 1.1280 level and above 1.1300 we have newly profitable shorts as well.

Potential demand stacks:  not applicable

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1307-1.1318, 1.1510-1.1605,1.1622-1.1635

Yesterday I wrote, "There is no incentive for SM to go back down as there are no net stop positions lower." and with the ECB Press Conference confirming no change in policy and position, prices hiked all the way to within 2 pips of the 1.1400 key level before falling off dramatically. SM looks suspiciously to be reaccumulating long positions prior to another upward move. SM is likely to retest the 1.1250 level or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1250, 1.1230

EU short levels: 1.1320, 1.1384, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1450, 1.1494-1.1505, 1.1527-1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (610pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (257pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests initial seeling.
DAY- The candle is a large spread (141pips) bear "upthrust" on average vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests a "bear trap" in place.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Trapped short volumes are more significant.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4320-1.4262

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4358-1.4375, 1.4391-1.4403, 1.4430-1.4451, 1.4505-1.4530

Yesterday's whipsaw was interesting as SM cleared the deck prior to the next move. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to Asia high 1.4367 level or higher before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4310, 1.4300

GU short levels: 1.4375, 1.4435-1.4455, 1.4485, 1.4515, 1.4600

Posted at 5.54 am EST