DAILY REVIEW 4 April 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (589pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (285pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is an above average spread (104pips) narrow body spinning top closing on very high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of buying and initial profit taking. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last Friday's NFP data was largely positive although the unemployment rate was revised to 5% from 4.9% with other adjustments negligible. The FED's dovish stance as espoused by FED Chair Janet Yellen leaves the USD in limbo, the market ignoring rate hike rhetoric by other FED members. The FOMC Minutes release this week will be telling.

Oanda order book:  Trapped short volumes remain significant. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.1303-1.1295, 1.1285-1.1267, 1.1257-1.1228, 1.1211-1.1200, 1.1153-1.1140

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1290-1.1285
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1505-1.1605, 1.1620-1.1630

There is no high impact US or Euro news today. With the trapped shorts in the majority, SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to retest the current high 1.1438 or higher before retracing to fade weak longs.

EU long levels: 1.1350, 1.1290-1.1284,1.1272, 1.1253

EU short levels: 1.1473-1.1494, 1.1505, 1.1527, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (610pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (340pips) bull "upthrust" closing on low vol>1week. The candle close suggests initial buying.
DAY- The candle is an ultralarge spread (204pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on very high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Volume is very thin and there is no significant trapped volume at this point in time, perhaps only a relatively more trapped short volume. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4495-1.4511, 1.4600-1.4615

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4318-1.4312

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4242-1.4261, 1.4272-1.4290, 1.4300-1.4342, 1.4360-1.4382, 1.4405-1.4412, 1.4450-1.4460, 1.4500-1.4515

Price moved as analyzed last Friday. UK Construction PMI today will be the catalyst.
SM is is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.4270 or higher before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.4170, 1.4100-1.4090, 1.4000-1.3990

GU short levels: 1.4275-1.4285, 1.4330-1.4350, 1.4365-1.5385, 1.4400-1.4410, 1.4450-1.4460, 1.4485, 1.4515, 1.4600

Posted at 11.10 pm EST