DAILY REVIEW 16 December 2015

My PC is still down and the overlay program does not work on my Mac so I'll just do the best I can.
EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. November's candle suggests more downside but the lack of volume suggests retracement possibilities before that happens. Last week's candle confirms this. Furthermore, there are no significant order stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (492pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<13 months. The candle close suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a normal spread (246pips) bull closing near the high on average vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY- TThe candle is a very large spread (155pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Euro has remained under pressure with a US rate rise still on the table for December. Post NDP, price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518. At last Thursday's ECB press conference, Mario Draghi's policies levitated the EU about 470 pips that not even a decent NFP could reverse. 

The Oanda order book shows bulk of net trapped short positions with newly profitable shorts. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.080-1.0789, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0685-1.0673

Potential supply stacks: 1.1243-1.1253

Potential long (trapped) stops:  nothing significant 
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0940-1.0980 

US data plus FOMC later will be the fuel that SM needs. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around the 1.0980 level or higher before reversing. Any statement of a delayed rate hike will also see much higher EU moves.   

EU long levels: 1.0890, 1.0800-1.0795, 1.0762-1.0740, 1.0700  

EU short levels: 1.0980, 1.1040-1.1055, 1.1091-1.1100


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (503pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is a normal spread (283pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a very large spread (155pips) bear closing at the low on high vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks: nothing significant
Potential supply stacks: 1.5290-1.5305

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4893-1.4880

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5000-1.5075

Prices have dived on poor UK data and the volumes are very thinly spread with new profitable shorts from the 1.5200 level. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around the 1.5056 level or higher before reversing to continue the downward move. 

GU long levels:  1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5050, 1.5075, 1.5100, 1.5220, 1.5290-1.5315

Posted at 5.50 am EST