DAILY REVIEW 29 December 2015


EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. November's candle suggests more downside but the lack of volume suggests retracement possibilities before that happens. Last week's candle confirms this. Furthermore, there are no significant order stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (492pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<13 months. The candle close suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (138pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<50weeks. The candle close suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a small spread (37pips) bull "pseudo-upthrust" closing on low vol>1day. The candle close suggests more upside.  

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Christmas came almost immediately after Mario Draghi's magic and Janet Yellen finally raising rates. Price has held despite the rate hike as we head into 2016.  

The Oanda order book shows significant net trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.0800-1.0789, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0677-1.0664

Potential supply stacks: N.A.

Potential long (trapped) stops:  N.A. 
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0976-1.0991, 1.1066-1.1076, 1.1151-1.1160 

With hardly any movement yesterday. It would not be too different from watching grass grow. There is some US data release later. SM is likely to continue upward pressure to around the 1.1059 level or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.0800-1.0795, 1.0762-1.0740, 1.0700  

EU short levels: 1.1060, 1.1105, 1.1208


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (503pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (139pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<103weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.
DAY- The candle is a small spread (60pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>1da. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped long positions. 

Potential demand stacks: nothing significant
Potential supply stacks: 1.5090-1.5103, 1.5190-1.5200

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4865-1.4855

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4920-1.4963

The volumes remain very thinly spread. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around the 1.4970 level or higher before reversing to continue the downward move. 

GU long levels:  no significant levels

GU short levels: 1.4970, 1.5000, 1.5050, 1.5075, 1.5100, 1.5220, 1.5290-1.5315

Posted at 3.37 am EST