DAILY REVIEW 23 December 2015

Hi folks,
The network connectivity seems to have been solved with new settings, Yay! Anyway, I will not be posting until next week. I wish everyone a Blessed and Merry Christmas!

Cheers
Trek Trader

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. November's candle suggests more downside but the lack of volume suggests retracement possibilities before that happens. Last week's candle confirms this. Furthermore, there are no significant order stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (492pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<13 months. The candle close suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a average spread (257pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol>15weeks. The candle close suggests more downside but the volume suggests buying. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (81pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on low vol<15days. The candle close suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: At the last ECB press conference, Mario Draghi's policies levitated the EU about 470 pips that not even a decent NFP could reverse. Now with the FED rate rise in place, we still find USD weakness.

The Oanda order book shows significant net trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.0807-1.0789, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0677-1.0664

Potential supply stacks: 1.1243-1.1253

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0910-1.0900, 1.0794-1.0763, 1.0743-1.0732 
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0937-1.0960, 1.1063-1.1075, 1.1175-1.1183 

As expected, the weak shorts yesterday were faded to a new high before price retraced. Short positions remain under threat as they remain the bulk of trapped folks. With more US data out later, SM is likely to retest yesterday's high 1.0983 level or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.0900-1.0890, 1.0800-1.0795, 1.0762-1.0740, 1.0700  

EU short levels: 1.0980, 1.1040-1.1055, 1.1091-1.1100


GU Analysis:

I won't bother with this pair today. Suffice to say that we should only be looking to sell at the specific levels or higher.