DAILY REVIEW 16 November 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (598pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (155pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>9weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (102pips) bear closing about 1/2 off the low on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests reduced buying pressure.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last week, EU collapsed after FED Chair Yellen said that a rates rise was still on the table for December. Following this, the NFP data released the US Dollar bulls and now price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518

The Oanda order book shows more net trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  no significant stacks

Potential supply stacks: 1.0792-1.0804, 1.0875-1.0890

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0672-1.0580
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0811-1.0821, 1.0833-1.0860, 1.0904-1.0920

Price opened gapped down by about 20pips but has since been closed as prices moved back up steadily pending EUR CPI data and ECB's Draghi's speech later today. SM induced new weak shorts earlier and are likely to fade weak shorts to 1.0785 or higher before continuing downward.   

EU long levels: 1.0580 

EU short levels: 1.0791, 1.0807-1.0825, 1.0843-1.0855, 1.0863-1.0873, 1.0896 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average (402pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (221pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (75pips) bull "doji" closing on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests some upside before reversing.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows significant volume of newly trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5110-1.5095, 1.5046-1.5030
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5190-1.5160, 1.5090-1.5075, 1.5024-1.4975

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5250-1.5288, 1.5319-1.5330, 1.5400-1.5410, 1.5544-1.5569, 1.5582-1.5590, 1.5615-1.5638

Key UK news is only due tomorrow. SM is likely to target the the short position stops, fading to the 1.5262 level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5250, 1.5260-1.5270, 1.5340, 1.5355-1.5375, 1.5415

Posted at 3.49 am EST