DAILY REVIEW 23 November 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (598pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (146pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (99pips) bear closing at the low on low ol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Euro has remained under pressure with a US rate rise still on the table for December. Post NDP, price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518

The Oanda order book shows more freshly trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  no significant stacks

Potential supply stacks: 1.0877-1.0890

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0600-1.0565
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0710-1.0720, 1.0728-1.0746, 1.0765-1.0777, 1.0830-1.0860

Good Euro data has enabled SM to fade weak shorts. With the US Home sales data out later, expect SM to go after the stops of the weak shorts to 1.0670 level or higher before continuing downward.   

EU long levels: 1.0580 

EU short levels: 1.0670, 1.0710, 1.0725-1.0731, 1.0791, 1.0807-1.0825, 1.0843-1.0855, 1.0863-1.0873, 1.0896 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average (402pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (181pips) bear upthrust closing off the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests selling and more downside.
DAY- The candle is an above average spread (127pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying interest and more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a lot of fresh profitable short positions to around 1.5220 level. 

Potential demand stacks: Not significant
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5144-1.5125, 1.5011-1.4986

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5156-1.5205, 1.5306-1.5316, 1.5334-1.5350, 1.5537-1.5560, 1.5576-1.5592, 1.5610-1.5633

Look for a stop hunt by SM to remove weak shorts up to around 1.5220 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5207-1.5220, 1.5290-1.5315, 1.5340, 1.5355-1.5375, 1.5415

Posted at 6.43 am EST