DAILY REVIEW 20 November 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (598pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (155pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>9weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (107pips) bull closing near the high on average vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last week, EU collapsed after FED Chair Yellen said that a rates rise was still on the table for December. Following this, the NFP data released the US Dollar bulls and now price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  no significant stacks

Potential supply stacks: 1.0877-1.0890

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0615-1.0555
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0758-1.0779, 1.0830-1.0860

ECB's Mario Draghi will be speaking later today, this will likely be the catalyst for price positioning and profit taking by SM to close out the week. With the volume of weak shorts still pretty much evident, SM are likely to fade them to the 1.0761 level or higher before continuing downward.   

EU long levels: 1.0580 

EU short levels: 1.0791, 1.0807-1.0825, 1.0843-1.0855, 1.0863-1.0873, 1.0896 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average (402pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (221pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a normal spread (108pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on average vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a majority volume of trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5110-1.5095, 1.5046-1.5030
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5228-1.5198, 1.5140-1.5122

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5313-1.5340, 1.5515-1.5530, 1.5544-1.5565, 1.5582-1.5592, 1.5610-1.5633

True to form, SM cleared weak short stops to 1.5333 yesterday. SM is likely to fade these folk up to the current high of 1.5292 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5290-1.5300, 1.5340, 1.5355-1.5375, 1.5415

Posted at 11.12 pm EST