DAILY REVIEW 9 November 2015

Hi friends,

I trust you had a good weekend. I managed to restore my WIndows 10 again but I'm still not sure which update is causing the problems. In the meantime, I'm working on it. Anyway I am thinking of doing a live market review weekly perhaps, every Tue or Wed but am not decided on the day yet. I'll likely be starting this next week, maybe even tomorrow so do follow me by the various methods e.g Twitter, Facebook, Google+ etc. so you won't miss the invitation.

Cheers
Trek Trader


EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (598pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (346pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is an ultralarge spread (187pips) bear closing off the low on high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last week, EU collapsed after FED Chair Yellen said that a rates rise was still on the table for December. Following this, the NFP data released the US Dollar bulls and now price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518

As can be expected after a huge move, the Oanda order book shows significantly net trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  no significant stacks

Potential supply stacks: no significant stacks

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0705-1.0538
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0781-1.0792, 1.0804-1.0815, 1.0833-1.0871

Without key data release today, SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.0791 or higher before continuing downward.   

EU long levels: 1.0580 

EU short levels: 1.0791, 1.0807-1.0825, 1.0843-1.0855, 1.0863-1.0873, 1.0896 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average (402pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a very large spread (470pips) bear closing near the low on average vol>9weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is an ultralarge (192pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more volume of newly trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5046-1.5030
Potential supply stacks: 1.5212-1.5225

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5026-1.4985, 1.4871-1.4824

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5088-1.5140, 1.5229-1.5249, 1.5317-1.5342, 1.5355-1.5375

Key UK data will only be released from Wednesday. SM is likely to fade weak shorts and retest the breakout 1.5200 level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5200, 1.522501.5250, 1.5340, 1.5355-1.5375, 1.5415

Posted at 1.33 am EST