DAILY REVIEW 11 November 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (598pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (346pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (89pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests reduced selling pressure. Some pull back can be expected but ultimately still downward.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last week, EU collapsed after FED Chair Yellen said that a rates rise was still on the table for December. Following this, the NFP data released the US Dollar bulls and now price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518

The Oanda order book still shows significantly net trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  no significant stacks

Potential supply stacks: no significant stacks

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0705-1.0522
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0787-1.0820, 1.0833-1.0871, 1.0903-1.0921

ECB's Draghi will speak later toady and that will be the trigger, looking at the bulk of traders still short, SM is likely to use the news to fade weak shorts to retest 1.0788 or higher before continuing downward.   

EU long levels: 1.0580 

EU short levels: 1.0791, 1.0807-1.0825, 1.0843-1.0855, 1.0863-1.0873, 1.0896 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average (402pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a very large spread (470pips) bear closing near the low on average vol>9weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a small spread (53pips) bull "doji" closing on low vol<13days. The candle close and volume suggests lack of selling interest.  

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more volume of newly trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5046-1.5030
Potential supply stacks: 1.5212-1.5225

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5078-1.5050, 1.5030-1.4985, 1.4871-1.4824

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5181-1.5197, 1.5230-1.5242, 1.5355-1.5375

Despite the mixed bag of UK data released today, prices continue North as weak shorts stops abound. SM is likely to keep fading weak shorts to the breakout 1.5200 level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5200, 1.5225-1.5250, 1.5340, 1.5355-1.5375, 1.5415

Posted at 7.54 am EST