DAILY REVIEW 11 November 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (598pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (346pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (68pips) bull closing about 1/2 off the high on low vol<5days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last week, EU collapsed after FED Chair Yellen said that a rates rise was still on the table for December. Following this, the NFP data released the US Dollar bulls and now price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518

The Oanda order book shows significantly net trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  no significant stacks

Potential supply stacks: 1.0870-1.0890

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0667-1.0561
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0781-1.0810, 1.0842-1.0855, 1.0897-1.0907

As expected, prices tanked on Draghi's speech trapping shorts and then reversed upwards to take stops just short of retesting the 1.0788 level by 8pips. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to retest Asia high 1.0780 or higher before continuing downward.   

EU long levels: 1.0580 

EU short levels: 1.0791, 1.0807-1.0825, 1.0843-1.0855, 1.0863-1.0873, 1.0896 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average (402pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a very large spread (470pips) bear closing near the low on average vol>9weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a normal spread (106pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more volume of newly trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5046-1.5030
Potential supply stacks: 1.5212-1.5225

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5175-1.5142, 1.5127-1.5110,  1.5095-1.5075

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5270-1.5285, 1.5544-1.5569

More short positions have been built up around the 1.5200 key level (also previous breakout level).  SM is likely to target these stops, fading to the 1.5262 level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5250, 1.5260-1.5270, 1.5340, 1.5355-1.5375, 1.5415

Posted at 4.05 am EST