DAILY REVIEW 19 November 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (598pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (155pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>9weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (75pips) bull closing about 1/2 off the high on low vol<4days. The candlde close and volume suggests no selling pressure and more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last week, EU collapsed after FED Chair Yellen said that a rates rise was still on the table for December. Following this, the NFP data released the US Dollar bulls and now price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  no significant stacks

Potential supply stacks: 1.0877-1.0890

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0615-1.0563
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0727-1.0735, 1.0830-1.0860

US data coming out later will likely be the catalyst for the main move. SM are likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.0723 level or higher before continuing downward.   

EU long levels: 1.0580 

EU short levels: 1.0723-1.0740, 1.0791, 1.0807-1.0825, 1.0843-1.0855, 1.0863-1.0873, 1.0896 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average (402pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (221pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (60pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows significant volume of trapped short positions with more shorts trapped above the 1.5200 level. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5110-1.5095, 1.5046-1.5030
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5228-1.5180, 1.5145-1.5126

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5267-1.5293, 1.5305-1.5326, 1.5404-1.5417, 1.5544-1.5569, 1.5582-1.5590, 1.5615-1.5638

Yesterday, I wrote "expect SM to take out the weak shorts to the 1.5289  (H4 ema200 confluence) or higher  before reversing", price went to 1.5292 and tanked on the UK data release. Prices haven't tanked as much as expected as the news rushers have just added their lot into the pool. SM is likely to fade these folk up to the current high of 1.5292 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5290-1.5300, 1.5340, 1.5355-1.5375, 1.5415

Posted at 5.16 am EST