DAILY REVIEW 10 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Weekly-The candle is an average spread (219pips) bear spinning top closing on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking prior to a continuation down move. Bias is still to the downside. Daily- The candle is a normal spread (111pips) bull closing near the high on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2417, 1.2390, 1.2379 Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2532, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: With the FED's ending of its QE3 program, it appears that the baton has now been passed to the other central banks. The NFP data showed solid growth in employment but negligible income growth or put another way, low wages, sending the market scurrying to find another level of "balance".  This week will see another batch of key data and events that may prove pivotal in influencing the various central banks' decisions. Bearing in mind that the tipping point was reached last week as prices finally fell right through the "bottom" and went to 1.2357 SM used the vagaries of the "poor" wages data to steeply take profit on their USD positions causing all majors to rise across the board. The present SM trend will be to continue to push higher to reaccumulate short positions in what is a likely eventuality of the prices resuming the downtrend. Prices opened slightly gapped up but SM is likely to fade weak longs to around the 1.2417 level or lower before reversing to test the 1.2532 pivot or higher. 

EU long levels: 1.2417, 1.2390, 1.2379 

EU short levels: 1.2532, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745

Video of Review for Students: 

updated 9.24am EST

GU Analysis:

GU: Week- The candle is a average spread (232pips) bear closing 1/3 above the low on very high vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking prior to resumption of the downtrend. Day- The candle is a normal spread (97pips) bull closing just off the high on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Demand: Short term- 1.5850, 1.5815, 1.5800 Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5965, 1.6027, 1.6180, 1.6225 Background: Last week, price closed decisively below the 1.5853 pivot and will likely head lower, the overall bias still being short. Profit taking is taking place pushing prices upwards after the NFP. Prices gapped up on the open today but the SM is likely to fade weak long to around the 1.5850 or even lower to 1.5815 - 1.5800 level before reversing back up to rebuild short positions at 1.5965 or higher to 1.6027 before reversing to resume the downtrend. 

GU long levels: 1.5850, 1.5815, 1.5800 
GU short levels: 1.5965, 1.6027, 1.6180, 1.6225

Posted at 4.27 am EST