DAILY REVIEW 21 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a below average spread (70pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of sellers and more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2515, 1.2509, 1.2500, 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457 Order Book Stops: 1.2525, 1.2500 Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2632, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Order Book Stops: 1.2600, 1.2625 - 1.2660, 1.2700 Background: The Euro remains weak based on fundamentals. The past few days after the FOMC reveal a clear SM controlled level from 1.2500 - 1.2597. Yesterday I wrote "The induction of shorts at yesterday's low of 1.2511 and the subsequent trapping of breakout traders there or lower will confirm the SM bias remains long" and this process is still ongoing. SM is likely to test the 1.2600 level and higher before resuming the downtrend.

EU long levels: 1.2500, 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457, 1.2442 

EU short levels: 1.2550, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (104pips) bull spinning top closing on average vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of seller with more upside. Demand: Fx Order Stacks- 1.5650, 1.5630-15, 1.5580-60 Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: Short term- 1.5816, 1.5850 Fx Order Stacks- 1.5750-60, 1.5780-1.5800, 1.5825 Background: With unchanged fundamentals, there is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The interest for a reversal in this pair would only come at these demand levels. Yesterday I wrote "continues to push upward to test the 1.5734 pivot or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend". As expected SM trapped breakout long traders turning at 1.5735 and fading back down to take their stops, building more long positions. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to around the 1.5655 - 1.5648 level before reversing to retest the yesterday's high or higher before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.5650, 1.5630-15, 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 1.49 am EST