DAILY REVIEW 19 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (101pips) bull closing almost at the high on low vol<16 days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457 Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2632, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: The fundamentals are unchanged Euro remains weak. SM wiped the board last Friday 1.2397 all the way to 1.2545 before reversing. We have the FOMC minutes later and SM will complete the test of the levels to re-stock short orders before resuming the downtrend so the SM cycle today is still Bias long but the trend is down. 

EU long levels: 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457, 1.2442 

EU short levels: 1.2550, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745

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GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a small spread (49pips) bear "tombstone closing on low vol<15days. The candle close and colume suggests more downside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: Short term- 1.5816, 1.5850 Background: The fundamentals are unchanged prices are still in an "inside day" of yesterday. There is really no demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The interest in this pair would only come at these demand levels or a retrace to the breakout level 1.5800 or higher. After the MPC minutes release, SM trapped shorts at the 1.5591 pivot and reversed. Yesterday I wrote "I repeat yesterday's analysis that SM is likely to keep selling pressure to test the current 1.5591 low or the 1.5561 pivot before reversing back to fade weak shorts." This is now in progress and SM is likely to test the 1.5734 pivot or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. 

GU long levels: 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 7.27 am EST