DAILY REVIEW 26 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (84pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: Euro's fundamentals remain weak and after ECB's Draghi sent the Euro into a tailspin, the market is now waiting on the European CPI and employment data on Friday to close out the last working day of the month. Furthermore, ECB’s Coeure said he wants to "have asset buying discussion next week". Asset buying aka QE Euro-style? Yesterday I wrote "SM is likely to induce more weak shorts to the 1.2400 or lower before reversing to continue the restocking of short orders..." SM went right to the 1.2400 level, kissed 1.2401 and reversed upwards after the release of "good" US data. Although the trend bias is short, the SM Cycle bias is Long as sell orders above 1.2440 have been comprehensively absorbed with price stalling at 1.2486 before reversing back down. SM will want to keep the upward push to restock shorts prior to the release of the data and is likely to create selling pressure to the 1.2435 level or lower before reversing to push back up. A large bunch of orders, possibly stops and fresh orders can be clearly seen at 1.2500, 1.2512, 1.2525, 1.2550, 1.2565, 1.2577, 1.2600, 1.2700   for the eventual push downwards.

EU long levels: 1.2437, 1.2423, 1.2413, 1.2400

EU short levels: 1.2500, 1.2515, 1.2543, 1.2565,  1.2600, 1.2635, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (86pips) bull "dragon fly" doji closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825 Background: The fundamentals remain unchanged. BOE's  Carney said that he expects the UK recovery to continue but it remains an economy that requires stimulus. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. Yesterday, I rote "....to test the 1.5650 level or lower before reversing upwards to retest the 1.5734 pivot or higher", price literally dived 3pips below 1.5650 to 1.5647 and reversed up to tag 1.5734 before stalling and reversing. Fx Order Stacks (shorts) clearly seen at 1.5740, 1.5755-60, 1.5775-80, 1.5790-1.5810, 1.5825-30 and longs at 1.5675, 1.5650 With the UK GDP data coming out later, SM are likely to position prices in the unintended direction prior to the release. 

GU long levels: 1.5670, 1.5650, 1.5630-15, 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 1.26 am EST